Thursday, September 28, 2006

Democrats still lead in election polls + analysis

Two new polls covering the upcoming elections show that the Democrats are easily retaining - even padding - their lead on Republicans in the race to control Congress. The Dems have a lead of 9-points in the Reuters poll, leading 42% to 33%. That poll also showed that Iraq is concern of voters heading into November. Iraq was at 33%, terrorism/security was at 30%.

In a new FOX News poll, the Dems have an 11-point lead over the GOP in the infamous "who would vote for if the election were held today" question. Another part of that poll showed that most Americans blame Pres. Bush rather than Bill Clinton for not being able to snag Osama bin Laden before 9/11. This comes after the now infamous Clinton/Wallace interview on FOX News Sunday. Interesting...

Here are the complete poll results.

There is no question that the Dems are holding on to their lead because of that number on Iraq. As long as the Iraq war stays as the most important issue to voters, the Dems should easily get the House and probably the Senate. Although, with close to double-digit leads in both of these polls, the Democrats may still be safe even if that Iraq number drops. But they sure don't want to find out.

Any new terror incident or threat close to 11/7 is the wild-card in all of this. If the Bush administration and GOP happen to pull something out of the bag right before the election, GOPers sweep it all. However, there is a chance that, if the hypothetical terror incident/threat is not very serious, Americans will start to get a bit tired of the constant threats and alerts and sour on the GOP and the terror/security issues. Don't know if that's likely, but it is a possibility.


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