Saturday, October 21, 2006

GOP Survival in November?

Barron's Magazine (It is from WSJ, so keep that in mind) has a cover story this week on their bold and possibly ridiculous prediction for the November midterms: The GOP will keep complete control of Congress.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.

First, why are they looking at campaign finance data to gauge an election? Are they kidding? It doesn't matter that the Dems are a little behind in cash this election, the voters are angry. Look at '94. Since when do finance reports trump a bevy of polls? And the GOPers are hurting in the polls. Second, the Dems are closing the gap in raising cash this election, with the DCCC raking in more cash than the Republican campaign committee.

This rant doesn't mean that the GOPers won't pull an upset come 11/7. The Senate still appears safely Republican and the House could trend that way as well if a terror-related event pops up. And the Dems do not have a good reputation for closing out the kill (Latest example: Kerry in '04). They could stumble. But, if the election were held today, Republicans would most definitely lose the House, maybe the Senate. Anyone who says otherwise is either a partisan hack or an absolute lunatic.

Click here for the entire subscriber-only article.


At 5:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...



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