Thursday, December 14, 2006

2008: New Poll!

An early holiday gift has arrived from the good folks over at the Washington Post and ABC News.They've just released the stunning results from a new poll on '08 contenders. The poll shows that, on the Dem side, Hillary Clinton has solidified her role as the front runner, The early charge from Obama that had H and Co. worried in November has abated, sending the top Dem to nearly 40% in the poll while Obama is struggling at 17%, just above John Edwards.

Here are the numbers from the WP/ABC poll for the top 5 Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - 39
Barack Obama - 17
John Edwards - 12
Al Gore - 10
John Kerry - 7

Despite the continuing Dem infatuation with Obama, most Dem voters still see Hillary as their party's best shot in 2008. Why? Is it because they see Barack as too chummy and soft? Because they know that a black man will have an even tougher time trying to win the general election? It's all of that, plus the fact that rank and file donkeys still adore Hillary. They're not about to simply discard the power player of the Democratic party for BO the upstart.

The Republicans are, surprisingly, in considerably more disarray than the Dems. John McCain, the "sure-thing" just a few months ago, is continuing his downward spiral with ever increasing partisan pandering and tough talk on Iraq. Where JMac was the Mr. Likable in the race, he now has devolved into a Republican Hillary, with a love-hate image being formed.

McCain's favorability ratings have declined over the past nine months. Among independents, his support has dropped 15 percentage points since March. Independents were his strongest supporters when he sought the Republican nomination in 2000. The decline comes at a time when McCain is calling for sending more troops to Iraq and has aggressively reached out to conservative groups and Christian conservative leaders.

His only real competition, meanwhile, is proceeding through these early stages of the race rather cleanly. Giuliani has yet to hear any grief about his many closet skeletons or his liberal social stances. This means that hero-Rudy is in full campaign mode, winning over those disillusioned moderate JMac fans.

Thus, Rudy has built up his slim lead from the last few polls, now leading JMac by 8 points. Will McCain's posse soon realize the extent to which their boss is hurting his image and start implementing damage control?

Here are the numbers for the top 5 GOPers

Rudy Giuliani - 34
John McCain - 26
Newt Gingrich - 12
Mitt Romney - 5
George Pataki - 3

Click here for complete poll results.

Look for an updated 2008 ranking from Political Buzz very shortly!



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