Political Buzz

Political Buzz has moved!

2007-01-26T14:18:00.000-05:00

With work on the new site progressing faster than expected, PB i can now officially announce that we are moving to (be sure to bookmark it!) www.political-buzz.com

The site is greatly improved and will soon have even more great political content. More interviews, outside opinion columns, and updated news feeds are some of the new features that should be up on the new Political Buzz shortly. This site will only be used in the sort term if unforeseen hiccups are encountered with the continuing work on the new site.

New posts will be up on PB later today and continuing regularly from now on. So head over to www.political-buzz.com to see the new site.

Political Buzz News

2007-01-25T16:01:00.000-05:00

The erratic posting schedule that regular PB readers have probably noticed over the past few days has a good reason behind it. We are in the process of greatly upgrading Political Buzz and heading off to a new web site and address. This move won't be final until at least early next week, and we won't fail to give you the correct specs for the new site before that time.

Some exciting content will make its debut on the new site, with a new email newsletter, brand new "5 Questions" interviews, and exciting opinion content in the works. This won;y be available right away, but should be up soon once we're on our new page.

In the meantime, just hang tight as we try to post when we can until the move. Thanks for reading PB, and we hope to see you at the new Political Buzz ASAP!

Matthew Parker - Editor

Hagel Smackdown

2007-01-25T15:35:00.000-05:00

Can't help but applaud the bold moves of GOPer Chuck Hagel at that explosive Senate hearing on Iraq yesterday. Yeah, he's been at that for a few months. But this was beyond his previous rantings on the subject. This time it came with the backing of several influential GOP politicians (like Sen. Warner. Who saw that coming?) and the rest of the nation. And despite coming from conservative and troop-supporting Nebraska, his constituents are rallying behind his position.

This is one pol that the Bush administration and the right can't put down as unpatriotic and far left. Could this even be Iraq's Cronkite moment? Moderates get a healthy dose of respect from the American public these days, and Hagel fits that definition perfectly. One also has to wonder whether Chuck an ride this wave to a strong run in the '08 GOP primaries (he can't win the nomination in his current position of bashing GWB). He's still thinking about a campaign.

SOTU: What to look for

2007-01-23T19:46:00.000-05:00

Though the SOTU seems to lose importance with each passing year, this year may be different. The obvious reason for that is Iraq. Though Bush will probably lay off any heavy Iraq talk, his tone will be the thing to watch for. Early indications from the leaked portions of the speech are that he's going for the combative approach. If this holds up look for catcalls from the Dems post speech, along with lots of angry disillusionment from moderate GOPers.

They're looking at Bush's SOTU as the perfect platform for W to at least spout off a little rhetoric about eventually leaving Iraq, implementing some of the ISG reports recommendations, and generally acknowledge that he hears the growing Republican discontent with the war and the new surge plan. With it looking more like that won't happen, GOPers will be sure to ramp up the pressure on the Bush administration post-SOTU to come around and bargian with surge opponents.

The reaction of Dem '08 contenders are also sure to be interesting to see. Will Hillary finally really blast the war and semi-apologize for her pro-war vote? If not, will Edwards seize the moment and direct a blistering attack on both Bush and Hillary in order to solidify his position as the most vocal anti-war candidate? No doubt Obama will tread lightly, not wanting to risk bold statement just yet. And check the web for video statements from the whole '08 cast. Sure to be lots of goodies online.

Updated 2008 Rankings From Political Buzz - The Democrats

2007-01-23T19:16:00.000-05:00

Here are latest Political Buzz rankings of the '08 Democratic contenders. The GOP will be up tomorrow.

Feel free to give us your opinion of the '08 race, as well as what you think of our rankings. Have your own list? You can give us that as well.

..................................

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton -  ↑
By finally announcing her presidential intentions, Hillary is now able to get past that roadblock and fully prepare her campaign. H has no doubt been working behind the scenes to counter the rise of both Obama and Edwards. But now is when she must use her momentum to gently strike back at those two with the full force of her multi-million dollar war chest. Post-SOTU is a crucial time for Hillary, as the first debate draws ever closer and the Dem field will be completely set. Attacks on Obama and Edwards must come in February.

Barack Obama - ↑
If Barack Obama were most candidates, he would be reeling from Hillary’s official entrance into the ‘08 Dem field. But, as we all know by now, Obama is not like most candidates. His wild popularity and constant buzz carries him through this temporary abandonment by the media and the general fanfare of Hillary’s announcement. Though he did make a blunder in delaying his announcement until earlier this month (with the official word not coming until 2/10) Obama can still make the best of it by getting an early jump on an anti-Hillary campaign and generally camping out in New Hampshire until the debates. Only a true bombshell will bring Obama down.

John Edwards - ↔
The buzz is gone. Edwards ‘08 loses steam even as his poll numbers stay strong. He’s almost assured of winning Iowa with his high numbers and is also respectable in the Granite State. But no one is talking about him. The two flashy Dems steal the spotlight with great sound bites, big announcements and lots of cash. But JRE is on the cusp of getting the unions; a big win. Can his populist image sustain the outright popularity of Hillary and Obama?

Tom Vilsack - ↑
Like Edwards, assured of a great Iowa showing. That always counts for something. Beyond that, though, there’s no chance for a Vilsack upset. But he’s done his best to bang the anti-surge drum and to spread his folksy charm around. Always bound for a VP slot, he’s got the best chance of the also-rans. Wouldn’t a moderate white man from the Midwest look good traversing the country for Obama or Hillary? No doubt they think so.

Joe Biden - ↓
His showy Senate hearings on Iraq - his only chance to boost his presidential campaign - already have lost substance. Outside of the ambush of Condi Rice, they’re simply a cheap ad for Biden ‘08. Maybe he can turn them around. Numbers are low for this talkative Dem, with most still not knowing who he is (what?!). Will fight for a Veep slot along with Vilsack and Richardson.

Bill Richardson - ↔
Along with Hillary, the latest Dem to enter the race. His foreign policy cred alone is enough to warrant a strong look as VP. Combine that with his friendly image, great record as NM Gov. and his Latino background story and you have the perfect Veep. But a minority won’t work with Hillary or Obama, leaving Richardson hoping for an Edwards upset. What about his chance in the primaries? Never mind…

2008: New Dem '08 Poll has Hillary in Front

2007-01-22T22:32:00.000-05:00

A new USA Today poll of Democratic presidential candidates has Hillary Clinton retaining her lead over the likes of Obama and Edwards.

Hillary Rodham Clinton
29%

Barack Obama
18%

John Edwards
13%

Yet another national poll with Hillary solidly in command. But the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire have H struggling to place even second. Does this mean that H will crumble once voters really think about her as president? Or maybe her huge deficit in always zany Iowa is a mere blip that will eventually be righted in the streets of Manchester. Cash is bound to start flowing from Hillary's coffers ASAP as she attempts to make that turnaround happen.

The Buzz

2007-01-22T15:11:00.000-05:00

The latest political headlines-

Bush's SOTU tomorrow night will be deja vu all over again. His two main themes in the speech will be Iraq and alternative energy. Hmmm. Weren't they already covered last year? And not much has changed on either front.

SOTU "pre-buttals" have already begun. Dem presidential candidate Tom Vilsack issued his today. It's - what else - harsh on W: "It's hard to conceive of an administration that continues to advocate for reduced taxes for the wealthiest Americans, and continues to fund billions of dollars to reconstruct Iraq, and then simply asks middle class families to pay more in order to ensure the birthright that every American ought to have, which is affordable insurance coverage," Vilsack says.

Mitt Romney takes more hits from the right. It's a nice synopsis of why Mitt is "not for conservative voters". Brownback's stock just shot up...

John Edwards has the advantage of a solid and professional web campaign. Perhaps he's the decaffeinated Howard Dean?

BREAKING: Hillary's (finally...) In!!

2007-01-20T11:15:00.000-05:00

Hillary Clinton finally ended the breathless speculation about possible harrowing political scenarios by officially joining the '08 presidential race. Her announcement came this morning with a bouncy message on her website. Can't wait for Obama's response.

You know after six years of George Bush, it is time to renew the promise of America," Clinton says in a videotaped message in which she invites voters to begin a dialogue with her on the major issues health care, Social Security and Medicare, and the war in Iraq.

"I'm not just starting a campaign, though, I'm beginning a conversation with you, with America," she said. "Let's talk. Let's chat. The conversation in Washington has been just a little one-sided lately, don't you think?"

And with that, the 2008 campaign is now in full swing.

2008: Richardson's In

2007-01-20T07:42:00.000-05:00

NM Gov. Bill Richardson joined the ever-burgeoning list of Dem candidates in 2008 yesterday as he announced his plans for a campaign. The official word will probably come tomorrow.

The foreign policy cred of Richardson is not far from impeccable (what other '08 contender from either party can claim that he personally negotiated to stop genocide in Africa? Golden!), and should make him an attractive wild card as Iraq and Mideast policy come into focus as major 2008 issues. But his name recognition remains low - despite his war-halting jaunts around the globe - and he's got nothing on domestic issues. His late entry into the race and the presence of the Dem's big three - Hillary, Obama and Edwards - makes BR's effort little more than a plea for a Veep slot with a star.

Hillary and Obama appear the best fit for "VP" Richardson. His easy going public persona will help to ground the Hillary campaign, while his foreign policy experience will strengthen Obama and his 2 years in the Senate.

2008: Obama - Fundraising Machine

2007-01-20T07:29:00.000-05:00

Remember when members of the political punditry were ogling Barack Obama yet were concerned about his personal fundraising prowess in the face of the Hillary juggernaut? Well, just as the rest of the Obama '08 campaign is rolling along unimpeded, he is already raking in cash and stealing donors from under Hillary's nose. Close friends and past supports of HC are streaming to join Obama's campaign, bringing their bulging and always open checkbooks along for the ride.

Obama continues to shred Hillary's NY support base, and now will head out to Hollywood to scratch together some funds. That should be no problem, as pro-Obama Hollywood fundraisers are in the planning stages.

Powerhouse agent Ari Emanuel, whose client stable includes A-listers like Michael Douglas, Martin Scorsese, Larry David and Paris Hilton, is set to throw a sure-to-be-star-studded bash for Obama, D-Ill., next month.

A spokesman for the Endeavor agency head confirmed Emanuel "will be doing some sort of event (for Obama) in February."

DreamWorks SKG moguls Steven Spielberg and David Geffen, along with activist actors George Clooney and Barbra Streisand, each forked over $2,000 to Obama's 2004 Senate campaign, according to Newsmeat.com, a Web site that tracks celeb contributions.

As if stealing Hillary's friends in NY and LA weren't enough, Obama is also strong on the internet fundraising front, with a Dean-style support web site and PAC already formed. All is truly well in Obamaland.

2008: Edwards Update

2007-01-19T15:23:00.000-05:00

John Edwards blew through PB country last night, stopping in Orlando for a fundraiser. Besides gobbling up some much needed campaign cash, JRE also continued his biting criticism of the Democratic party that he sees as lethargic "8-year-olds".

He was predictably unsatisfied with George W. Bush. But he also had some less-than-flattering things to say about his own party. Specifically, Edwards chastised Democratic leaders in Congress for their non-binding resolution opposing the troop build-up. If they are truly opposed to the build-up, Edwards said Democrats should put back their words with action by voting against funding measures. Because, if complaining is all the Democratic leaders want to do, Edwards asked: "Why don't we go stand in the corner and stomp our feet like an 8-year-old?"

While some--like Dick Morris--may see Edwards as the liberal downfall of the Dems and simply a more popular Dennis Kucinich, JRE is absolutely striking a chord with the Dems (that would be all of them) that are angry at the troop surge and equally angry with Hillary for sputtering a few minor catcalls at W over it.

Look for JRE's Saturday speech in Iowa to be an attempt to lock up that state for the January caucuses and legitimize his recent Dem bashing.

The Buzz

2007-01-18T20:17:00.000-05:00

The latest political headlines-

Dem John Edwards steals the spotlight from Hillary and Obama in a new Zogby Iowa poll. JRE has a commanding lead over BO, with Hillary even further back. Rudy is basically tied with JMac in the GOP side of the poll.

Rumors are piling up that Hillary will not run for president this time around - maybe never. There seems to be dozens of reasons for H to cancel her plans, with Obamamania being only the biggest. Will she really pull the plug? It's laughable that "Hardball" pundits say that she'll nix a try in '08 because she "enjoys the Senate too much", but she is stalling something fierce.

GOP '08 possibility Mike Huckabee will decide his presidential plans in February. Huckabee's peeps: "He has said he will make it at the end of his book tour, which is in a couple of weeks".

Dem Kerry is still considering an '08 run, with an announcement as to his intentions coming in a few weeks. With so much opposition to another Kerry campaign, one wonders why he would torture himself yet again unless he wants to top JMac on that issue).

The GOP is once again killing ethics reform in the Senate.

2008: New Iowa Poll!

2007-01-18T14:07:00.000-05:00

The latest poll out of Iowa shows McCain continues to trail Rudy and Hillary still unable to sway Cornhuskers.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the field of GOP presidential prospects in Iowa, followed closely by Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to the latest Iowa poll from Zogby International.Meanwhile, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards remains atop his party’s field in Iowa, with the next closest presidential hopeful 10 percentage points behind.

Edwards is no doubt the surprise out of Iowa, with Obama at 10 points back being the next Dem in line. Will his populist charm really win over Iowans come caucus time? Hillary's lethargic campaign must be worried about this early deficit. In the extended election season that is now the political reality, one year is not that long. To ignore Iowa like hubby Bill appears to be her strategy, but the scene in NH is no better. Besides, wasn't it supposed to be a Hillary landslide across the country?

As for McCain, he's still trailing in IA and looks like he won't stabilize in New Hampshire, with polls there showing his support base halved by Rudy and Mitt. Look for another last stand in Carolina to be JMac's final hope.

2008: Will Hillary's New Tone on Iraq Work?

2007-01-17T19:31:00.000-05:00

Hillary is getting tough on Iraq in her own cautious way by calling for a cap on US troops in Iraq. But he then blew her chance for any real jump in support from the left by calling for more troops in Afghanistan.

Appearing on network television and radio shows to discuss her recent trip to Iraq, the New York senator said she opposes President Bush's plan to increase U.S. troops in Iraq and favors redeploying troops out of Baghdad and eventually Iraq. She said she also favors conditioning economic aid to the Iraqi government's progress in meeting certain political goals.

"The Bush administration has frankly failed to put any leverage on this government," Clinton told CBS' "The Early Show." But she sidestepped questions on whether she would vote to block funding for Bush's troop increase.

On Afghanistan, Clinton called the conflict there "one of the great missed opportunities," urging an increase in U.S. troops before a likely "spring offensive" by the Taliban. "Let's focus on Afghanistan and get it right," Clinton said.

What a poor effort to trash the war. Does H really like the war? Is she closer to McCain than Obama? This veiled quasi-backing of Iraq will not get her anywhere in the Dem primary, where she's already tied with Obama in a new poll. And when will H jump in the race?

While it's true that Obama blew his golden opportunity to beat Hillary to an announcement by months, thus sending his already high buzz skyrocketing, he's okay now with H slitting her wrists on Iraq and pushing her own announcement even later. Somewhere, Dick Morris is cackling uncontrollably...

The Buzz

2007-01-17T10:42:00.000-05:00

The latest political headlines-

Hillary wants a troop cap for Iraq. Her appearances on several morning shows today were filled with disdain for Bush's new Iraq plan but little observation on how to actually stop it.

Speaker Pelosi raised her verbal war with Bush over Iraq troop surge to a new level yesterday. She stopped short of pledging to block the plan, but the impression she left was unmistakably harsh. `What you are doing has first and foremost cost now over 3,000 lives".

McCain wants to make peace with Christian conservative powerhouse James Dobson. Their latest feud had Dobson pledging to work to defeat JMac in the primary. This comes after McCain's early pandering to the Christian right.

GOP candidate Duncan Hunter and his posse are jubilant over his AZ straw poll victory in JMacs' home state. “He’s just been a very strong, solid, conservative Republican".

2008: Letter to Obama

2007-01-16T10:59:00.000-05:00

Senator Obama,

You probably have never heard of Political Buzz, but as a member of the online punditocracy, I think it vital that you hear us out on this.

You have hinted that you are very close to a major decision on your presidential aspirations for 2008. You hinted this in November. You hinted this in December. And now have made your decision here in January. Good move. As an astute political observer you must now that timing is everything in the world of politics. Excellent opportunities must be jumped at and taken advantage of. After a bumbling start you appear to have come to realize that lesson and have acted upon it. Great!

But the real struggle is yet to come. It is made even more difficult by your pained decision to push off the announcement of your candidacy to the middle of this month; the month that Sen. Hillary Clinton is sure to make her first month as an official presidential candidate. That candidacy will no doubt overshadow your own (despite your blissful media image), wresting the spotlight from the major milestone that is the Obama '08 campaign. And, more importantly, wresting away the donations of the big Democratic pockets who would no doubt rather support a proven commodity like Sen. Clinton. The peak moment of Obamamania has passed, leading your recent announcement to become an anticlimactic event on the crowded stage that is the 2008 campaign.

But this can be overcome - and only through swift action. You must press Hillary's jugular immediately and lose your happy/pushover image. Yes, the public loves you as a cuddly teddy bear with a charming background story. But that won't beat Hillary. Keep your smiling visage in the public eye while at the same time you rapidly and silently trash Sen. Clinton as yesterday's news. Show that you have new ideas and a new vision of politics. Make nice with John Edwards in order to initiate a two-pronged assault on the Clinton campaign and to ensure the services of a popular Vice Presidential candidate. No doubt a golden strategy.

The bottom line,Senator Obama, is that action is needed. Get off the beach, put on a spiffy shirt and hit the trail with a vengeance. Remember your whirlwind tour before the midterms? Why not do it again?

This concludes our unsolicited - but oh, so important - advice for your newly launched 2008 campaign.

Sincerely,
Political Buzz

2008: Obama's In!

2007-01-16T10:49:00.000-05:00

Barack Obama virtually launched his 2008 bid for president this morning by announcing that he will form a presidential exploratory committee and then make a final decision on Feb 10th.

As many of you know, over the last few months I have been thinking hard about my plans for 2008. Running for the presidency is a profound decision - a decision no one should make on the basis of media hype or personal ambition alone - and so before I committed myself and my family to this race, I wanted to be sure that this was right for us and, more importantly, right for the country.

I certainly didn't expect to find myself in this position a year ago. But as I've spoken to many of you in my travels across the states these past months; as I've read your emails and read your letters; I've been struck by how hungry we all are for a different kind of politics.
So I've spent some time thinking about how I could best advance the cause of change and progress that we so desperately need.

And that's why I wanted to tell you first that I'll be filing papers today to create a presidential exploratory committee. For the next several weeks, I am going to talk with people from around the country, listening and learning more about the challenges we face as a nation, the opportunities that lie before us, and the role that a presidential campaign might play in bringing our country together. And on February 10th, at the end of these decisions and in my home state of Illinois, I'll share my plans with my friends, neighbors and fellow Americans.

The official word came form his website. He posted a video on the site announcing his decision. There's also a text version.

The Buzz

2007-01-15T13:22:00.000-05:00

The latest political headlines-

Minnesota GOP Governor Tim Pawlenty announced this morning that he will be co-chair of John McCain's '08 exploratory committee.

John McCain got drubbed in an Arizona 2008 straw poll. Duncan Hunter was 1st.

Hillary Clinton, in a bid to further strengthen her foreign policy advantage, met with Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan and Karzai + US troops in Afghanistan over the weekend.

The first shot is fired in the inevitable brawl between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton as Clinton's posse slams Edwards for his speech on weak Dems in New York (Sunday).

Dem 2008 candidate Joe Biden plays to the black vote in SC by wading into the Confederate flag debate in that state. Biden said this at an MLK Jr. event in SC: "If I were a state legislator, I'd vote for it to move off the grounds — out of the state".

The Donald wants Condi Rice fired: "...she goes on a plane, she gets off a plane, she waves, she goes there to meet some dictator. ... They talk, she leaves, she waves, the plane takes off. Nothing happens, it's a joke..."

2008: Romney Update

2007-01-15T09:06:00.000-05:00

While Mitt continues to struggle with his ideological identity crisis, he has gained the backing of a Bush. No, not that Bush. But one of the Bush brothers appears to be funneling support to Mormon Romney in the '08 horse race. Key Jeb Bush operatives from FL are joining the early stages of the Romney '08 campaign in New Hampshire, and other FL politicians close to Jeb - former Lieut. Gov. Toni Jennings and Rep. Allen Bense - are also on the Mitt bandwagon. That's an impressive lineup of conservative Republican support in a key general state. No help in the primaries, however. Maybe Jeb himself will eventually lend a hand to gobble up nationwide GOP voters.

But that might not help too much as long as big questions remain over Romney's political turnaround. GOPers are still not comfortable with his many liberal leaning statements from past campaigns in the left wing bastion of Massachusetts. Reading the list of bills and various initiatives that he supported in Mass. looks like it could mean the end of the Romney campaign. But he's not going away. The Hotline even has Romney ranked 2nd (ahead of the faltering Rudy) in their latest 2008 rankings. It's no doubt because Mitt is the only '08 conservative candidate - fake or real - that conservatives will actually feel okay about supporting. But how long will it be before the constant viewing of Romney's pro-choice outburst in his 1994 debate with Ted Kennedy on YouTube gets to these desperate right wingers?

2008: Obama Set to Announce?

2007-01-14T13:49:00.000-05:00

The Obama '08 campaign may finally be ready to launch sometime next week, with BO hinting at a decision and inside sources calling it a sure thing that BO's in for 2008.

The first indication appeared on the website Political Wire (great stuff), with Goddard divulging that an inside "tipster" give PW the info that Barack Obama will announce his 2008 campaign on the Oprah Winfrey show next Wednesday.

A tipster with knowledge of Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) presidential campaign planning hints that an official announcement may be made on the Chicago-based Oprah Winfrey Show this week.
The Oprah schedule for Wednesday, January 17 says to "check back later" for more details on the show. Since all shows are taped in advance, this suggests something is up.

And then on Face the Nation on CBS this morning, Obama hinted that he will decide whether to run "very soon", while refusing to give a timetable for an announcement.

"I will have something to say about that fairly soon," Obama told Bob Schieffer. "Obviously, there's been a lot of talk. It's something that I've been considering. I've said I've been considering it. And we'll be making an announcement fairly soon."

Very coy, though much more than the usual "I'm thinking about it". It all adds up...

Obama also had a mini face-off with John McCain on FTN, with JMac appearing right before BO came on. It was the perfect situation for them to show off their respective Iraq strategies. It was the usual stuff from these two, with McCain sticking hard to the surge plan and Obama slinging criticism at it without offering a real plan of his own. But it is increasingly hard to interpret JMac's love of the war/surge as anything more than naive stubbornness. Iraq will bring him down in the general if he doesn't change his strategy. And who better to derail the 'Straight Talk Express' than Obama?

Quick Hits

2007-01-12T19:56:00.000-05:00

How many Republicans do you think are secretly applauding - and concurring with - GOPer Chuck Hagel's outburst yesterday in the Senate over Bush's Iraq plan. Calling Condi Rice a liar is usually Russ Feingold/Carl Levin territory. Will we see more Republicans (say,Dick Lugar) follow CH's lead and bring their Iraq qualms out in the open as the surge fizzles? More importantly, Hagel may become the McCain of '04 to Dems in the presidential hunt. Look for a symbolic offering of the VP position from whomever might win the Dem nomination.

2008 candidate Joe Biden also spiced up the Iraq hearings - as well he should, considering he's chairing the proceedings. He blasted Bush's surge plan, calling the whole thing a "tragic mistake". His rhetoric is no doubt even more heated than usual to garner some '08 support from an angry public, but it might not be working. New polls show Biden is viewed unfavorably by most voters and has him getting hammered by GOPers McCain and Giuliani in a general election showdown. And he's still in the single digits in Dem primary polls, well behind even John Edwards. But Biden '08 rolls on, getting a new campaign manager (A big FL Dem - Luis Navarro) and heading off for MLK Day festivities in SC next week.

House Dems are doing somewhat well in their "100 Hour" strategy. With the minimum wage and stem cell bills already completed, Dems are now targeting oil company subsidies, and are aiming to slash student loan costs. And they still want to strangle Iraq funding. That;s not really a smart move, but getting out of Iraq was the reason they got elected in the first place.

Republican Dissent

2007-01-11T11:06:00.000-05:00

Even as some GOPers are rallying behind the president after his Iraq speech last night, others are not quiet about their difference of opinion over the Iraq troops surge. This could mean a further unraveling of Republican unity.

Sen. Norm Coleman, the Minnesota Republican, would rather not be in the position of publicly disagreeing with President Bush.But when it comes to Iraq, Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill are breaking away, leaving Bush to lay out his new plan without the usually reliable array of GOP support.

"I don't want to embarrass the president, but my position is clear," said Coleman, who visited Iraq last month. "I do not believe that a surge in troops is going to solve the fundamental problem we have."Coleman and other Republicans are becoming increasingly public with their view that the ongoing violence in Baghdad requires a political solution, not a military one. "Iraqis have to decide they're going to stop killing themselves," he said.

Crumbling GOP support for the surge could spell trouble for the main surge proponent and GOP 2008 contender - John McCain. Now he's trying to distance himself from the plan, saying that he'd do it differently by sending In more troops for longer periods. But it's still the McCain Doctrine. He can't escape that.

Hillary Responds

2007-01-11T10:52:00.000-05:00

As PB predicted yesterday, Hillary Clinton gave a tough response criticizing Pres. Bush's dud of a speech on Iraq last night. Trying to curry lot favor with the antiwar left, Hillary blasted Bush as "not getting the message" that the public delivered on Iraq.

"The President’s Iraq policy has been marred by incompetence and arrogance as his Administration has refused to recognize the military and political reality on the ground.

"American troops continue to serve and sacrifice in Iraq, performing magnificently and bravely. But as our commanders have said repeatedly, Iraq requires a political solution, not a purely military one, and we did not hear such a proposed solution tonight.

The President simply has not gotten the message sent loudly and clearly by the American people, that we desperately need a new course. The President has not offered a new direction, instead he will continue to take us down the wrong road – only faster."

Good call to slam his plan, but she isn't alone. Her shift to the left is being mimicked by all Dems, with widespread anger over the troops surge laid out in the speech. And Obama and Edwards have been on record for weeks that they oppose a surge and want out of Iraq. Hillary needed to get tough on Iraq, but is it already too late?

2008: Will Hillary Make a Move on Iraq?

2007-01-10T12:36:00.000-05:00

Speculation is swirling around the possibility of a major Hillary event to come after Pres. Bush's speech on his Iraq plan tonight. A tough and critical response to W's speech seems the perfect opportunity for Hillary to not only get back in the spotlight that she has vacated for Obama and Edwards to enjoy, but also to gain favor with the burgeoning number of Dems that are uncomfortable with H's pro-war leanings and who want out of Iraq right now.

Hillary's Iraq problem (great Newsday piece) will not go away until she confronts the issues and either takes a Lieberman stance or join Ted Kennedy in calling for cutting war funds. She's already in the precarious middle ground of moderation, which has no doubt hurt her campaign and delayed her inevitable '08 announcement.

Watch for a Hillary response on Iraq by early next week.

2008 Quick Hits

2007-01-08T17:44:00.000-05:00

A new batch of Republican presidential candidate favorability ratings shows that Rudy Giuliani still has the heats of the GOP faithful. The poll, conducted earlier this month, has Rudy getting the high marks over John McCain, with all other candidates having a clean slate in voters minds. Giuliani's favorability raring is at 41%, with JMac's at 39%. But those numbers may tumble for Rudy with his incredible playbook gaffe still settling in and his campaign stuck in neutral as Rudy continues to mull if he should even run at all. McCain could pounce.

Although Hillary Clinton has stabilized in Iowa, she is increasingly facing pressure from all sides over her continued dawdling over her Iraq stance and a sharp push from John Edwards on issues near and dear to Hillary (poverty and health care). No campaign announcement has also doused some of her perpetual buzz. H and Co. does realize this, and is bound to right the ship ASAP. Look for tough talk from her during the much ballyhooed Senate investigations on Iraq. But Hillary will never pull an Edwards concerning her Iraq vote from '02. She is not going to make such a bold move to the left when her electability is still in question.

Joe Biden's '08 campaign is simply a trail balloon - started to see if his Senate hearings on Iraq (starting tomorrow) will rev up Dems enough to propel him to a choice spot as the anti-Hillary or, failing that, the perfect Hillary running-mate. Biden's pulpit in the Senate will allow him let loose with plenty of air time for his Bush bashing and the launch of the Biden plan for the Iraq mess. Biden's not going anywhere, however. A loose cannon for a mouth (Indian-Americans-7/11 comment, anyone?) and a terribly late start will be his downfall. A Veep slot? Not likely.

Dems in Charge - Day 2

2007-01-05T20:39:00.000-05:00

Top Dems try to show some backbone by slamming a troop surge in Iraq both in public comments and by sending a letter to Pres. Bush in opposition to his new strategy that calls for thousands of new U.S. soldiers in Mesopotamia.

Democratic congressional leaders Friday issued a warning to President Bush on his publicly signaled plans to escalate the U.S. troop presence in Iraq, presaging four weeks of Senate hearings that promise to bring sharp scrutiny and criticism for the White House’s war policy.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sent a letter to Bush requesting he abandon plans for a troop “surge” in an all-out bid to stabilize Iraq, calling the strategy one “you have already tried and that has already failed.” Reid and other Senate Democratic leaders reiterated their strong disapproval of the Bush gambit during an all-day retreat at the Library of Congress.

“The people of this country no longer support the war in Iraq,” Reid told reporters, adding that Democrats are willing to work with the president but “we believe the tactic would be a serious mistake.”

That's a big change from last weekend when Harry Reid and others seemed to accept Bush's plan as sound, and spoke as if they would not stand in the way of its implementation. Good move to actually tell the President to back off for a change, actually following through - for now - on the real mandate given to the Dems when they won in November: get out of Iraq.

But there will be no cuts in war funding.

Fiscal responsibility was another day 2 focus point, with Dems pushing through a new 'paygo" rule for the House. While this measure looks spectacular on the surface, it will kill most Dem health care and social House bills that are sure to come in the future. Will Pelosi eventually nix this deal? Yes, even though the PR of that move could cost them big come '08. GOP campaigners are sure to use a flip-flop on spending against Dems in all elections next cycle.

Look for Pelosi and Reid to try and keep control of their respective flocks on Monday, trying to quell increasing glee over the spoils of a majority. A full week will give Dems a chance to peddle talk of investigations, impeachment, cutting funds for Iraq (despite the objections of Dem brass) and various other social and foreign policy shenanigans. Granted, this is nothing that Republicans didn't do when they controlled The Hill. But weren't Dems elected to be the anti-GOPers? Playing the same tricks is inevitable, but will leave plenty of disillusioned voters.

Quick Hits

2007-01-04T15:55:00.000-05:00

Scintillating political video: A meeting on the House floor between Muslim hater GOPer Virgil Goode and first Muslim in Congress Keith Ellison. A lip-reader would be useful if we could actually see Goode's head in the video. Alas, he has his back to the camera.

A new ChristiaNetpoll of evangelicals of all political stripes has a few 2008 presidential hopefuls and could-be's on it. Jeb Bush tops the list for the GOP? Whoa...

Dems in Charge

2007-01-04T15:38:00.000-05:00

Democrats took control of Capitol Hill today, with broad smiles evident on the gleeful faces of the Dems. And why not? With a 233-202 advantage in the House, they will be assured of getting their "100 Hours" agenda plus some icing done within a few weeks. The Senate is a bit more contentions, but the Dems will no doubt be able to slam legislation thorough there as well. Nancy Pelosi meanwhile drooped her usual gloom and impeachment talk to "bask" in her election as the first female Speaker of the House. No doubt that today was a historic day.

2008: McCain Update

2007-01-04T15:18:00.000-05:00

The formerly easy road to the GOP nomination n 2008 for John McCain continues to crumble before him. Although his main rival Giuliani was the one to have a major disaster befall his campaign this week (playbookgate), McCain still managed to get hammered by all sides of the political spectrum.

Everyone, it seems, is jabbing at John McCain these days _ from a Republican rival for the presidential nomination to several potential Democratic candidates."When you're the perceived front-runner, your head's above the political trench and everyone takes shots at you," said Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist and presidential campaign veteran.McCain, considered by many to be the Republican to beat, has largely remained silent about the criticism, which is somewhat uncharacteristic for the outspoken Arizona senator. His presidential exploratory committee on Wednesday declined to comment on the spate of reproaches over his stands on gay marriage and the Iraq war.

And the main suspicion is beginning to fall on JMac's "gleeful" and crafty peeps in the Rudy notebook issue. Considering that McCain had lost the title of GOP frontrunner to Rudy about the time of the heist, it surely is plausible. Turning Rudy into the poor victim? No good...

It's hard to tell whether all of this flak headed toward McCain is a sign that he's still seen as the most formidable candidate in the GOP race or is simply being kicked while he's reeling. His campaign is apparently confused as to what JMac's ideological makeup should be for his presidential run, with his early signs of uber-pandering to the evangelical right now well back in the past and a new push with Ted Kennedy for a Senate immigration bill being viewed as "amnesty" by indignant anti-illegal conservatives.

And now his staunch stay-at-all-cost+more-troops doctrine for Iraq is unraveling. Despite a public strategy of standing by his continuing comments supporting an indefinite occupation of Iraq plus sending more troops there, some quotes from last year and from staffers are now haunting JMac.

In the February ‘07 issue of Vanity Fair, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is quoted telling a group of conservatives last October that the Iraq war “ isn't going to be around in 2008".

According to Vanity Fair, an audience member told McCain, “The war’s the big issue. Some kind of disengagement — it’s going to have to happen. It’s a big issue for you…in 24 months.” McCain responded:

“I do believe this issue isn’t going to be around in 2008. I think it’s going to either tip into civil war … ” He breaks off, as if not wanting to rehearse the handful of other unattractive possibilities. “Listen,” he says, “I believe in prayer. I pray every night.” And that’s where he leaves his discussion of the war this morning: at the kneeling rail.

"Isn't going to be around"? He knows that he's beat on Iraq, and will obviously now play down all mentions as much as possible. But can he really believe that Iraq will be over by '08? That's pure desperation disguised as ignorance.

2008: One notebook left behind...

2007-01-02T12:03:00.000-05:00

Poor Rudy. What a mess... The GOP front runner for 2008 bungled big time when he lost lost his '08 campaign playbook; literally a large file containing everything on Rudy's presidential ambitions - his hopes, fears, donor hit-list, everything. It was left to be forgotten on a Rudy campaign swing pre-midterms. Then, apparently, a henchman for a rival GOP candidate nabbed to doc, proceeding to let loose its contents upon a ravenous media. Rudy's posse smells foul play - big time. .

The loss of the battle plan is a remarkable breach in the high-stakes game of presidential politics and a potentially disastrous blunder for Giuliani in the early stages of his campaign.
The document was obtained by the Daily News from a source sympathetic to one of Giuliani's rivals for the White House. The source said it was left behind in one of the cities Giuliani visited as he campaigned for dozens of Republican candidates in the weeks leading up to the November 2006 elections.

Giuliani spokeswoman Sunny Mindel suggested there were political dirty tricks behind the loss of the documents and called the timing suspicious.

"I wonder why such suspicious activity is occurring and can only guess it is because of Rudy's poll numbers in New Hampshire and Iowa," Mindel said.

Juicy tidbits in the Daily News article, too numerous to mention here. Bottom line is that Rudy needs to clamp down on these types of things when he is "officially" running. Good thing it was a GOPer who got it. Can you imagine what Hillary would do with that info?

2008 Quick Hits

2007-01-02T11:45:00.000-05:00

Mitt Romney is the latest 2008 hopeful to officially (almost) join the race. Undeterred by electability questions concerning his Mormon faith, Mitt is about to set up an '08 "exploratory committee", like those for Rudy and McCain. This means that Mitt's in. - While the committee filing will be labeled "exploratory," it will declare Romney as an official presidential candidate and commit him to the same fundraising and reporting rules he will have to follow when, as is expected, he transitions to a formal presidential campaign committee.
A formal announcement is expected sometime later this year, although Romney is planning a major fundraising event in Boston on Jan. 8 to propel his candidacy - Also, the word is that Mitt will base his primary campaign in Boston, which means that he will essentially abandon the McCain/Giuliani lovefest in Iowa to focus on the real New Hampshire conservatives to gain momentum. Smart choice. Incidentally, here's a recent interview Romney gave to the right-wing online hub Human Events.

Good move by the Edwards campaign to have JRE label the plan for a troop "surge" in Iraq the "McCain doctrine" on the Sunday shows. After all, JMac is the main backer of that pollyannish bit of strategy, and it's never too early to prepare for a possible general showdown with the good AZ Senator. Plus, it gives Dems a catchy phrase and a chance to trash JMac. Edwards is still a step ahead of his competition.

Speaking of McCain, he's seeking revenge in South Carolina, building up a strong campaign team there. No doubt he doesn't want to lose SC twice.

2008: Whatever happened to...

2006-12-31T07:32:00.000-05:00

...Barack Obama?

One would think that with the explosive entrance of John Edwards into the Dem '08 race that Obama would momentarily pause his Hawaii getaway to gain back a share of the Dem spotlight with some public appearance or, finally, his campaign announcement. Obama continues to be bombarded with Hawaiian support and the Draft Obama '08 campaign is still out there. Why the wait?

Perhaps he's wary of his original timeline for a holiday announcement after seeing how the Edwards launch quickly vanished from the MSM, being replaced by the deaths of Saddam and Gerald Ford. Only the political punditry is abuzz over JRE now, leaving his campaign at a loss in trying to scrounge up some publicity. Would an announcement on Oprah ensure peak attention for Obama's '08 entrance? That's what some of Obama's allies are indicating.

If Hawai'i-born Sen. Barack Obama decides to seek the Democratic Party nomination for president, he will likely make the announcement soon on the "Oprah Winfrey Show," according to U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawai'i.
He said Obama had indicated during an earlier appearance with Winfrey that he would announce his candidacy on the program if he decides to run in 2008.

"If that takes place, it will be the most-watched daytime television show in American history," said Abercrombie, who held a press conference yesterday with a small group of other Hawai'i-based Obama supporters to urge that he join the race.

The only problem with the Oprah launch idea is that it would clearly add to some growing Dem complaints that Obama is all fluff.

Barack Obama visited New Hampshire, wowed the Democrats there and jumped up more than 20 points in the polls to a tie with Hillary Clinton, all of which means he could be in for it. “Where’s the beef?” more and more people will ask and already are asking, even including Gary Hart, the most famous political target of that withering inquiry.

“Truly great leaders possess a strategic sense, an inherent understanding of how the framework of their thinking and the tides of the times fit together and how their nation’s powers should be applied to achieve its large purposes,” Hart writes. “ ‘The Audacity of Hope’ is missing that strategic sense. Perhaps the senator should address this in his next book. By doing so, he would most certainly propel himself into the country’s small pantheon of leaders in a way that personal narrative and sudden fame cannot.”

Fluff? Maybe, but who should care about that if fluff is the only way to win? Kerry was anti-fluff, and look what happened to him. Voters want cheery populists in office, not the dour warnings and rants of a Bush or Kerry.

2008: Edwards - Day 2

2006-12-29T19:10:00.000-05:00

Dem contender John Edwards truly gained the upper hand over his 2008 rivals with a whirlwind day of campaigning today in New Hampshire. Raucous cheers coming from overflow crowds at most of his Granite State events shows that, although initially written off by many (okay...PB included) as a Dem has-been, JRE is the new comeback kid. Well - at least early on.

Over a year ahead of the nation's first presidential primary, so many voters turned out Friday to hear Democratic hopeful John Edwards' call for a new spirit of American activism on problems ranging from poverty to global warming that hundreds were left standing outside in freezing temperatures.
Nearly a quarter of the crowd of more than 800 were unable to squeeze into the elementary school cafeteria where Edwards was to speak.
The former North Carolina senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee ended up giving his introductory remarks outside, using a microphone that broadcast his voice inside, before heading indoors.
"What we're asking is for you, the people of New Hampshire, not to wait for the next election to take responsibility," he said. "Identifying a problem and talking about hope is talking about tomorrow. We can't wait until tomorrow."

At his events and in his many TV appearances throughout the day, Edwards showed that he has learned a lot from his brief run in '04 and his dismal ride with the derailed Kerry campaign. While in his announcement speech and some other events he remained the stilted and smirking trial lawyer working to steal your money, his TV spots and Q&A's with supporters were considerably more realistic and powerful. You must admit that he has the ability to charm a lot of people.

But can the southern heartthrob really win the Dem nomination in this year of moderation and giant juggernauts (i.e. Hillary and Obama) with a new leftist ideology and a grassroots/Deaniac/techie campaign?

If his first day is any indication, John Edwards will be running a very different kind of campaign than he did three years ago — one that just might help him stand out among the dozen presidential wannabes who will be all over Iowa and New Hampshire in the next several months.

The press was raving how Edwards drew more to his NH events than even Barack. Can this teeming adulation last? Or is his posse simply stuffing the events with hungry Granite Staters looking to get out of the semi-cold?

JRE must be moving up the '08 ranks if he can get right-wingers angry about his new country estate.

2008: Edwards is in

2006-12-28T10:49:00.000-05:00

Democrat John Edwards has finally ended the non-suspense this morning and officially announced his candidacy for president in 2008. He also kept the location of the event in a Katrina-devastated NOLA neighborhood instead of at a "special town hall" in Des Moines tonight. That one's now just a kickoff party.

John Edwards, whose presidential campaign two years ago emphasized the growing divide between America's rich and poor, came to a hurricane-ravaged neighborhood of New Orleans to announce he is running again.
Edwards, 53, said he chose New Orleans as a backdrop to demonstrate that ``Americans can make a huge difference'' in helping those who need it most. Edwards stood in front of a home flooded in 2005 by Hurricane Katrina where repairs are just now nearing completion.
``New Orleans, in so many ways, shows the two Americas that I have talked about in the past,'' Edwards, a former Democratic senator from North Carolina, said. ``It also exemplifies something I've learned since the last election: It's great to see a problem and understand; it's more important to take action and do something about it.''

That's nice.

Edwards continued his quest for left-wing support with barbs aimed at the Iraq policy of Pres. Bush and some GOP candidates.

''It would be a huge mistake to put a surge of troops into Iraq,'' Edwards said on ABC's ''Good Morning America. ''It sends exactly the wrong signal. We can maximize our chances for success by making clear we are going to leave Iraq and not stay there forever.''

Those lefty blogs must be loving that. John Nichols at The Nation is already trumpeting Edwards as the candidate for progressives; even if JRE is not completely perfect for the left-wingers in in the Democratic party.

His announcement had no surprise factor due to his campaign spilling the beans on it yesterday sand JRE's obvious campaigning for several months. But the event was covered by every cable news outlet, giving the Edwards 'ob folks a shot of buzz and publicity to counter the public infatuation with both Hillary and Obama.

His One America Committee website has already changed over to johnedwards.com, and he's trying to go the Dean route with lots of blogs, user-generated video and live web chats to come - so they say. Speaking of live chats, the site will host a live session with Edwards himself at 12PM Eastern. He and his posse appear to have all campaign bases covered exceptionally well; from heartstring tugging and sappy announcement to the instant transformation of his OAC site from simple PAC to fully functioning campaign hub. Makes one wonder if Hillary and Obama are this far along when they announce. Edwards has officially jumped from Dem also-ran to top contender between his skyrocketing poll numbers and now this A+ announcement.

Quick Hits

2006-12-26T19:17:00.000-05:00

Will it ever stop??!! Sen. Joe Biden added his name to the bloated Dem list of '08 contenders by announcing today that he will run for president. - "It is my intention to seek the nomination, and it's my intention sometime in the month of January to set up the appropriate mechanism to be able to raise money for that purpose," Biden said in a telephone news conference that centered on Iraq. - In what seems to be a desperate bid, Biden will have the advantage of his repeated harsh criticism of Bush on Iraq strategy to gain favor with war weary voters. He apparently intends to make that his one main platform issue. But there are more genuinely anti war and more viable Dem candidates to fill that spot on. While Biden is a natural on the talk show circuit, always good for refreshing candor and opinions on almost any issue, he is nowhere close to being presidential material or a top Dem contender. His loose mouth stops any talk of a Veep slot, so this run may just be for kicks.

Obama and Hillary are virtually tied at 22% in a new '08 poll out of New Hampshire. It was released over the holiday and confirms that Hillary is stumbling. Will Obama ride this wave of support into a midweek presidential announcement? Don't count out the surging Edwards. He was in 3rd, getting 16%.

Has Dem Speaker Pelosi made another misstep? With her bruising fight over Majority Lewader and House Intel Chairman finally out of the picture, Pelosi is no bringing on a new controversy. Her plan for opulent "House victory parties" is raising eyebrows across the board and generating stinging catcalls from Republicans. - "It'll be 'all Nancy, all the time,'" Dani Doane, director of House relations for the conservative Heritage Foundation, told Cybercast News Service. "It's almost as though she views this as a coronation as opposed to doing the people's business." - While that comment is surely right wing hot air, Pelosi and the Dems need to tone down their glee over gaining the House and nix these parties before their tattered populist image is completely shredded.

..............................

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Open Thread

2006-12-23T19:01:00.000-05:00

With PB off until Tuesday, you can post any of your thoughts on politics here, courtesy of our generous open thread.

PB's Holiday Break

2006-12-23T18:56:00.000-05:00

With Christmas upon us, it is with regret that Political Buzz must inform it's loyal readers that we will be doing no posting both Sunday and Monday. PB will be back on Tuesday (probably before WaPo's Cillizza...) with a regular schedule.

Have a great holiday!

2008: “Shouldn’t you be the vice president first?”

2006-12-23T18:48:00.000-05:00

A semi-fawning NYT article on the tribulations of Barack Obama and his impending presidential decision. The piece relates how BO's six-year-old once asked the question that's screaming inside the head of Hillary and Co.:

On a winter afternoon two years ago, Senator Barack Obama took his oath of office and strolled across the Capitol grounds hand-in-hand with his wife and two daughters. At the time, a question from his 6-year-old sounded precocious. Now, it seems prescient.

“Are you going to try to be president?” Malia Obama asked her father, giggling as a television camera captured the moment. “Shouldn’t you be the vice president first?”

Exactly...

The article tries to expand on the real issues that an Obama '08 campaign would face. Those include dealing with left-wing liberal upset with his sometimes moderate Senate votes and good relationship with Republicans, getting actual support - not lighthearted praise - from top Dem donors and pols, and, obviously, the issue of his experience. Or, more appropriately, his lack of it.

Is Obama actually ready for a run? Or is he to be mowed down by the vengeful Hillary?

Top Ten Funniest Political Moments of 2006

2006-12-23T18:32:00.000-05:00

The blog Extreme Mortman has this list . It came out earlier this month but failed to be noticed by us at PB until now.

We could have devised our own, but it's much more fun to rip off another site. Besides, this one covers all the funny stories that we'll remember from '06. Who'll ever forget 'Cheney shoots Whittington'? Or peering inside Bill Jefferson's freezer? Priceless...

PB readers: Have any hilarious moments to add to this list?

2008: And So It Begins...

2006-12-23T08:18:00.000-05:00

While Hawaii's favorite son is vacationing in the islands before he makes his momentous decision about '08, some Aloha Staters are giving him an awfully big hint at what he should do. A grassroots "Draft Obama" campaign in Hawaii is running a TV ad in Honolulu that they hope the Senator will see, thus deciding to launch a run.

"We're hoping that he sees the public groundswell and realizes that we've got his back, and if he jumps into this we're going to work as hard as we possibly can to make sure he's the next president," website founder Ben Stanfield said by telephone from his home in Rockville, Md.

The ad appears to be the same one that the draftobama.org folks ran in New Hampshire and D.C. last week.

2008: Edwards Update

2006-12-22T18:34:00.000-05:00

Burgeoning Dem contender John Edwards has apparently changed his plans concerning his presidential campaign announcement next week. He has nixed the idea of an announcement from Katrina-ravaged New Orleans and has instead bowed to political reality and has scheduled a "special town hall" meeting in Des Moines for next Thursday. Anytime a political candidate includes "special" in the title of an event it means something big: Either they've lost an election or they're entering one.

He must have come to the rightful conclusion that poverty-fighting messages don't get votes. Pandering to Cornhusker's is what gets support in the correct places.

JRE probably also realized that the switch was a good decision when a new Dem Iowa poll came out showing that he was tied with Barack Obama for the Dem lead, with Hillary well back. H is even behind Vilsack.

When asked who they would vote for if the 2008 Democratic caucuses were held today, 22 percent of Democrats named John Edwards, the former South Carolina senator and 2004 vice presidential candidate. Sen. Barack Obama, of Illinois, also was named by 22 percent of Democrats.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack was at 12 percent and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton was at 10 percent.

That's more good news for the "slick" Edwards. Rising poll numbers, the first major Dem to announce - in Iowa, no less - and voters that still think he's cute; life is good for the jolly Sen. Edwards.

Thinking About Reelection

2006-12-22T08:33:00.000-05:00

In a rather sad sign of today's political reality, House Democrats, having just won a majority in Congress, are already formulating a plan to stay in power after the 2008 elections.

It is the “incumbent retention program,” a detailed plan worked out after Democrats gained control of Congress to fortify the most politically shaky with plum committee assignments, prized bill sponsorship and an early start on fund-raising — all in preparation for their 2008 re-election campaigns.

Not sure why the NYT seemed to think that this is an unusual strategy. This was Karl Rove's trademark. But Dems campaigned as the anti-Rove's, so spending more time on politicking than on actual Congressional work might cause sour feelings among voters. Isn't that why they ditched the Republicans?

Nancy Pelosi is especially involved:

Our focus is to make sure that each member strengthens his or her standing back home by offering strategic advice and help,” said Brendan Daley, a spokesman for Mrs. Pelosi, who is planning weekly breakfasts with this group. “That can be legislative, message or outreach tuned into the needs of their district.”

Between early House campaigning and the looming beast that is the '08 presidential primaries and election, Dems need to make sure that trigger-happy voters do not get the message that political campaigns are more important than the reason they're now in power on The Hill.

2008: Obama - This Week!

2006-12-20T19:12:00.000-05:00

Dem stud Barack Obama is set to announce his "plans" (meaning a run) for 2008 this week, as opposed to early next year, the original timetable, according to his sister in Hawaii.

Sen. Barack Obama will decide this week in Hawaii if he'll seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, his sister said Tuesday.
"He's going to make his decision here and announce it to us. Then he's probably going to officially announce his decision once he returns," Maya Soetoro told The Associated Press.

Obama, born and partially raised in Hawaii, is on vacation ( Or, according to Maya: "It's a much needed time for reflection." ) with his family there over the holiday, meaning that Obama's media announcement will still come close to 2007. No doubt he wants a quick jump on the post-Christmas news cycle, beating any announcements from Rudy, McCain or Hillary.

Here's another tidbit from that Chicago Tribune article previously cited in this post:

Another bit of Obama news is this. Gallup's pollsters are reporting today that nearly half of the public doesn't know who he is.
That's hard to believe given the saturation media coverage he's received. But that's what the Gallup survey indicates.

That must be a typo. How can half of Americans not have an inkling of who Barack Obama is? The name alone should make him stand out. Is this a possible problem yet to surface? Dunderhead W-esque voters that don't pay attention to any sort of media outlets on the planet?

At least Tom Daschle thinks Obama's hot.

2008 Quick Hits

2006-12-20T13:51:00.000-05:00

Hillary Clinton pulled a Kerry/Edwards move yesterday on "Today", saying that, concerning her Senate vote for the Iraq war - "Obviously, if we knew then what we know now, there wouldn't have been a vote," she said in her usual refrain before adding, "and I certainly wouldn't have voted that way". "However, the former first lady denies her vote was a mistake; in part to maintain her centrist image". - A poor imitation of Kerry's "voted for it before I voted against it" schtick. Excepy H is the other way around. She voted against the war before she voted for it. Is she really that desperate to please the anti-war left and moderate DLC types in the Democratic party? She must realize that, no matter what she attempts to do, she'll never be a Howard Deanesque figure to left-wingers.

Rudy Giuliani, now officially the top GOP contender for 2008, launched his first campaign website yesterday. joinrudy2008.com is no more than Rudy propaganda (The site has pages with such titles as "The Crime Fighter". No mention of sleazy personal issues or gay marriage) with a credit card machine attached, but it's still put together much more professionally than John McCain's uber-tacky exploremccain.com site which is literally an online credit card machine. With the Join Rudy launch Giuliani is clearly organizing his campaign with an eye towards finality in preparation for his official '08 announcement.

More '08 campaigning going on today in Iowa, with GOPer Mitt Romney attending several GOP events in the Cornhusker State. Mitt is no doubt enjoying the Rudy-bashing WaPo article from yesterday. With McCain disorganized and Rudy too "liberal", Romney is apparently WaPo's pick for the nomination. - Meanwhile, Dem contender Tom Vilsack gave a plush AFLAC duck to Jon Stewart on "The Daily Show". A must-read article...

2008: Rudy's OK. Really

2006-12-19T10:35:00.000-05:00

While some political talking-heads are pondering the downfall of John McCain, others (Cillizza: "As close readers of this blog know, The Fix remains skeptical that Giuliani, who is pro-choice and pro-gay rights, can win a GOP nominating process dominated by conservative voters.") are talking of the impossibility of JMac's main rival, Rudy Giuliani, actually winning the Republican nomination.

In fact, the Washington Post has an in-depth analysis of why Rudy can't win in '08. According to the WaPo story, Giuliani will never be able to overcome conservative anger with his liberal social positions and his sordid past. That will be what halts the Rudy campaign, GOP strategists say.

...conservative party strategists and activists in key primary states are skeptical and warn that the socially liberal Republican faces a difficult campaign. They question whether a Republican who has had one marriage end in annulment and another in divorce, and favors abortion rights, gun control and immigrant rights, has much retail appeal in the evangelical and deeply conservative reaches of the GOP.
"If the Republican Party wants to send the social conservatives home for good, all they have to do is nominate Rudy Giuliani," said Rick Scarborough, a Southern Baptist minister and president of Vision America. "It's an insult to the pro-Christian agenda. . . . He's going to spend a lot of money finding he can't get out of the Republican primaries."

But are the WaPo pundits and Republican insiders overestimating the influence of Christian conservatives in the GOP? After all, they couldn't save Republican this November and lost many of their main politicians of influence in that election blowout. Can Rudy win by ignoring the evangelicals and instead focusing on those voters that love Rudy as the Hero of 9/11? He has broad appeal beyond just traditional GOP circles, so losing the religious vote may not spell the end of Rudy.

Rounding up GOP cash may be the biggest hurdle to a Rudy nomination. With McCain grabbing oodles of cash from some of GWBush's old donor friends, Giuliani has been forced to take drastic measures to get funding.

2008: McCain Falling Apart

2006-12-18T19:33:00.000-05:00

Former GOP frontrunner John McCain is seeing his freefall from the top of the '08 Republican heap continue with sharp rebukes of his Iraq strategy and a drubbing in a new poll.

First up; the poll. McCain has been losing ground to the surging Rudy Giuliani in many polls. But it was still hoped for in the JMac camp that he would still beat Hillary in a head-to-head matchup. That had been the case over the last several months. No more. McCain is down to top Dem Hillary by 7 points in the latest Newsweek poll. Hillary give JMac a GOP-in-November sized whupping. That's bad.

Meanwhile, his top nemesis Rudy is going strong. He's in a statistical tie with Hillary in the poll, a solid showing.

But why is McCain tanking so badly? Here's one take:

The fact is, as noted in earlier posts, McCain’s main appeal to Republican primary goers is, or maybe even was at one time, his general election power. But now that that’s getting flushed down the toilet, what else will McCain have to offer grassroots conservative voters other than his annoying insensitivity to social conservatives, his aggravating disloyalty to fellow Republicans, his old age and feeble lackluster stage presence, his glaring lack of executive experience, and his lack of good recent foreign policy experience? The one reason that McCain had so many Republican primary voters willing to hold their noses and put up with him in the first place was because they thought he could win. But now what?

Sounds like some pundits are already set to pack away JMac for the history museum. And why not? Rudy's got broad appeal, a strong bas in Independent and GOP moderates, and he's a (very recent and public) hero to many Americans. McCain '08 might really be imploding.

Harsh attacks on JMac's Iraq plan do not help matters. 2008 Dem candidate Tom Vilsack is piling on, with zingers like "...additional troops would make the Iraq government “more dependent instead of less dependent” on U.S. troops".

The esteemed GOP traitor Colin Powell also bashed the more troops Iraq scenario.

"Let’s be clear about something else, Bob, that gets a little confusing. There are really no additional troops. All we would be doing is keeping some of the troops who were there there longer and escalating or accelerating the arrival of other troops".

McCain and Co. have yet to enter damage control mode, a decision that is far past due. They had to have thought of the very real possibility that JMac's fevered pitch to conservatives and pro-war neo-cons would harm his moderate and independent image, something that was needed to insure that McCain would grab at least the nomination. The right-wing pandering was a waste of time, with GOP conservatives surely never willing to let go of their deep concerns with his conservative credentials on many issues. A move to the right was something that would have served his campaign much better right before the primary, when the prospects of RW's Romney and Gingrich would have been known better than they are now.

Bottom line? How could JMac have ignored Rudy??!!

2008: More Bayh

2006-12-18T12:12:00.000-05:00

With Dem Senator Evan Bayh dropping out of the 2008 presidential race, WaPo's The Fix has a handy list of winners and losers following the announcement. The usual figures are there on the winners side, like Barack Obama (he's the anti-Hillary candidate now) and Tom Vilsack (he's the anti-Hillary and anti-Obama candidate now).

But, like PB, Cillizza at The Fix realizes that Bayh has immensely furthered his realistic political ambitions by exiting the race this early. Evan is now the top vice-presidential candidate to both Hillary and Obama. Warner is probably out of the ix after the mysterious end to his burgeoning '08 campaign and having gone AWOL from politics since then. Bayh would serve to broaden the appeal of both top Dems, with strong support among moderates in Indiana.

2008: Bayh Drops Out

2006-12-16T18:42:00.000-05:00

While new Dems continue to enter the crowded '08 presidential race, some are still deciding against a run. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is now one of the latter. The moderate Dem, seen early on as the perfect anti-Hillary candidate, Bayh announced today that he was pulling out of the 2008 field, wisely concluding that he had no chance of winning if he had stayed in any longer.

“The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknown candidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath,” Mr. Bayh said in a statement. “And whether there were too many Goliaths or whether I’m just not the right David, the fact remains that at the end of the day, I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue.

Bayh saw the light after his recent campaign jaunt to New Hampshire, where Dem superstar Barack Obama was also traveling at the time. It was no contest as to who would draw more people.

Several other potential candidates have been making trips to New Hampshire for the last year and a half. Among the most frequent visitors is Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, who filled a small room at a Manchester conference center Friday night but wasn't near the draw as Obama on his first trip. Anticipating the inevitable comparison to their visits on the same weekend, Bayh's aides joked that 1,000 more people were in an overflow room.

Obama fever has appeared to have claimed its first official casualty.

But Bayh may not be level in his explanation. As was painfully visible in '04, no presidential candidate will just drop out this early because they don't have a chance to win. Look at Wes Clark, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich from that merry campaign. And there's Joe Biden, Tom Vilsack and Kucinich - again - this time around. It's more likely that Bayh - who could have blasted liberal Hillary in the debates - saw an opportunity to skillfully play his hand by conceding to both Hillary and Obama in order to secure top consideration for the Vice Presidential slot on one of those campaigns.

2008: Gingrich Update

2006-12-16T10:19:00.000-05:00

Fading GOP star Newt Gingrich tried to jumpstart his '08 hopes with another trip to New Hampshire yesterday, continuing his tough talk on free speech and terrorism. Newt was at the Manchester Republican City Committee's Christmas dinner as the guest speaker, and didn't disappoint the partisan crowd.

"Our friends at the 'ACLU left,' of course, were staggered at this concept," Gingrich told an audience of Republicans at a Christmas banquet. "How could we talk about anything less than 100 percent free speech? How could we consider in any way thinking about this issue?"

Gingrich cited last month's ejection of six Muslim scholars from a plane in Minneapolis for suspicious behavior, which included reports they prayed before the flight and had sat in the same seats as the Sept. 11 hijackers.

"Those six people should have been arrested and prosecuted for pretending to be terrorists," Gingrich said. "And the crew of the U.S. airplane should have been invited to the White House and congratulated for being correct in the protection of citizens."

He also gave his thoughts (updated thoughts, apparently. No talk of a "failure" in Iraq) on the war in Iraq, arguing against any discussion of withdrawal from Iraq.

When speaking about Iraq, people should understand that “Iraq is a campaign in the real world,” Gingrich said. “If this larger war didn’t exist, I would say we should leave Iraq this weekend.“When I look at Iraq, I see Iran. I see Afghanistan. I see Hamas. I see Hezbollah. What’s the totality of the war we’re dealing with? The answer is not to abandon Iraq.”

While going hard right on terror and the war, Newt also spoke of bipartisanship and "scientific possibilities" in the rest of his speech, sounding like a politician teetering on the precipice of starting his campaign. While he has been absent from any public platforms for awhile before his two recent NH trips, his Granite State visits have raised his primary profile. With McCain causing Republican disillusionment, Gingrich may see an opening to become the new anti-Rudy candidate. Will he move up his September '07 timetable for announcing?

Quick Hits

2006-12-15T13:01:00.000-05:00

Ailing Dem Senator Tim Johnson is recovering after brain surgery and is said to be in stable condition, upgraded from critical at the time of this WaPo article. That means Johnson will probably be well enough to continue on in the Senate and won't either die or be forced to resign. - Johnson was in critical condition at George Washington University Hospital but was described as recovering on Thursday. The South Dakota lawmaker, 59, was on "an uncomplicated postoperative course," the U.S. Capitol physician said after visiting him Thursday afternoon.
"He has been appropriately responsive to both word and touch. No further surgical intervention has been required," said the physician, Adm. John Eisold. - This means that Trent Lott ("You know I'd like to be in the majority...") and some far-right blogs should probably stop playing this for partisan benefit.

George Allen has popped up again, giving an interview to the AP. He discusses his slim loss to Dem Jim Webb and why he thinks that he lost that race (not macaca) and sprinkles the interview with dozens of football analogies. But Allen is tight-mouthed on his future political plans, only saying that he wants to win again so he can be "reborn". Whatever that means...

RCP has "The Daily Obama", with a few nice updates on the man whose family now fears for his safety. One nice blurb from the RCP piece is that Barack is worried that a general faceoff against John McCain might be seen as "War hero against snot-nosed rookie".

2008: An Edwards Surge?

2006-12-14T18:59:00.000-05:00

While he didn't announce his candidacy for president in 2008 last Tuesday as was rumored, Dem John Edwards is fast becoming the sleeper pick amongst top pundits for the '08 Dem nomination, with more ammo for that viewpoint coming in the form of a new Iowa poll showing that Edwards, not Hillary or Obama, is the leading choice for Cornhusker Dems. And his lead is nowhere close to slim. JRE leas Hillary by 20+ points in at least two primary polls done in Iowa over the last two months.

The latest poll just released - though conducted in October - has the Dem field laid out like this:

John Edwards 36%
Hillary Clinton 16%
Barack Obama 13%
Tom Vilsack 11%

What's more startling; that Edwards is blowing away his Dem competition or that Hillary and Barack are virtually tied? Either way, here's some analysis of JRE from Joe Klein and Co. at Time:

He has been working the state very hard, and Iowans really, really like him. They liked him but thought he was too young in 2004, when he finished second to John Kerry in the Iowa caucuses. They liked him last June, when a Register poll had him beating Clinton 30% to 26%. They liked him a few weeks ago when, according to Yepsen, more than 800 Iowans showed up for a John Edwards book signing. "He's just a great fit for this state," says Yepsen. "He's low key, down-to-earth, a nice guy."

Even some liberals are jumping on the Edwards bandwagon, in part due to his left-leaning performance on Hardball (you know, where he was supposed to announce...) and his fierce union-friendly attitude. What if he nabs left-wing Dem support? He's already an anti-war darling for his Iraq war vote retraction. Definitely an edge over Hillary on that issue. Will he be able to force Obama to admit to his early hawkish comments on Iraq + Iran and channel anti-war anger against those two rock stars and send liberals toward the Edwards camp?

The Hillary juggernaut is still alive and well, so the good news for JRE must be met with some skepticism. But national polls almost never measure the true Iowa vibe, and they certainly can't measure the southern charm of an Edwards or the populism of an Obama. Hillary must be feeling the heat.

An Edwards announcement is sure to be coming, perhaps before 2007. Watch for it soon after Christmas, when the Edwards family is all together in NC - little Jack sure to look as precocious as ever - and JRE can use that setting to tug at the heartstrings with a sappy - but powerful - kickoff to his 2008 run.

2008: New Poll!

2006-12-14T10:58:00.000-05:00

An early holiday gift has arrived from the good folks over at the Washington Post and ABC News.They've just released the stunning results from a new poll on '08 contenders. The poll shows that, on the Dem side, Hillary Clinton has solidified her role as the front runner, The early charge from Obama that had H and Co. worried in November has abated, sending the top Dem to nearly 40% in the poll while Obama is struggling at 17%, just above John Edwards.

Here are the numbers from the WP/ABC poll for the top 5 Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - 39
Barack Obama - 17
John Edwards - 12
Al Gore - 10
John Kerry - 7

Despite the continuing Dem infatuation with Obama, most Dem voters still see Hillary as their party's best shot in 2008. Why? Is it because they see Barack as too chummy and soft? Because they know that a black man will have an even tougher time trying to win the general election? It's all of that, plus the fact that rank and file donkeys still adore Hillary. They're not about to simply discard the power player of the Democratic party for BO the upstart.

The Republicans are, surprisingly, in considerably more disarray than the Dems. John McCain, the "sure-thing" just a few months ago, is continuing his downward spiral with ever increasing partisan pandering and tough talk on Iraq. Where JMac was the Mr. Likable in the race, he now has devolved into a Republican Hillary, with a love-hate image being formed.

McCain's favorability ratings have declined over the past nine months. Among independents, his support has dropped 15 percentage points since March. Independents were his strongest supporters when he sought the Republican nomination in 2000. The decline comes at a time when McCain is calling for sending more troops to Iraq and has aggressively reached out to conservative groups and Christian conservative leaders.

His only real competition, meanwhile, is proceeding through these early stages of the race rather cleanly. Giuliani has yet to hear any grief about his many closet skeletons or his liberal social stances. This means that hero-Rudy is in full campaign mode, winning over those disillusioned moderate JMac fans.

Thus, Rudy has built up his slim lead from the last few polls, now leading JMac by 8 points. Will McCain's posse soon realize the extent to which their boss is hurting his image and start implementing damage control?

Here are the numbers for the top 5 GOPers

Rudy Giuliani - 34
John McCain - 26
Newt Gingrich - 12
Mitt Romney - 5
George Pataki - 3

Click here for complete poll results.

Look for an updated 2008 ranking from Political Buzz very shortly!

2008: Yet Another Democrat...

2006-12-13T15:32:00.000-05:00

The 2008 Dem field got even more crowded yesterday with the official announcement of an '08 presidential run by lefty anti-war OH Congressman Dennis Kucinich. Unlike his dismal and self-deprecating run in 2004, DK's second go around is featuring as its main component a blistering critique of the Democratic party.

"On November 7, 2006, the American public voted for a new direction for our Iraq policy. That direction is -- out. As Democrats prepare to take the majority for the first time in twelve years, Democrats now have the responsibility to act on the overwhelming mandate issued by the American public," says the congressman. "Will that new direction mean an exit from Iraq? Because, if not, America will be held hostage by the skyrocketing cost of the war in Iraq even as President Bush leaves office at 11:59 am on January 20, 2009. And, the voters will not forget who let them down. "

Kucinich expanded on those harsh views and his apparently spontaneous decision to run in '08 in an interview done after his announcement.

Kucinich is no more than a fringe/protest candidate, trying to get his liberal and anti-war ideology out into mainstream Democratic politics. But unlike 2004, when the Dems embraced DK as a sort of mascot and likable character that could draw disillusioned far-left liberals back to the party, Dems don't want to play around with anti-war types like him. And his Dem bashing will only serve to get him out of the Dem primary and in the race as a struggling Independent. Do you think that Howard Dean will allow Kucinich to get a nationally televised pulpit to spread his gospel of Dem hypocrisy? Even if what Kucinich preaches is true, and even if he is the most genuine Dem in the race, he made a big mistake in attempting a do-over. Especially when his first effort garnered him nothing but sympathy and laughs. Even a friend of Political Buzz that worked on DK's '04 campaign is shedding a tear at the disappearance of the Congressman's credibility.

However, if he can tone down his rhetoric enough to get into the debates, he will, like '04, present a puzzling challenge for pro-warish Hillary as she tries to swat away the catcalls from war skeptics like Edwards and Obama (and Gore?). Will a sharp rebuke from DK cause Hillary to crack?

2008: McCain Analysis

2006-12-11T09:19:00.000-05:00

Time has an extensive analysis of the current state of John McCain and his increasingly bumpy road to the '08 GOP nomination. JMac has lost his way from his previous incarnation as a moderate maverick, now pandering to the right wing in hopes of drawing a clear distinction between himself and liberal Giuliani. Yes, he does want to be the "perfect candidate" for the GOP.

As a rallying cry. "Common sense conservatism" doesn't have quite the ring of "Straight Talk Express." But the new slogan on the website of John McCain's presidential exploratory committee--a slogan he manages to repeat at least three times in every speech he gives these days--tells you all you need to know about how different this presidential campaign will be from his last one. McCain '08 will be a bigger, more conventional operation--a tank, not a slingshot. The prevailing wisdom about McCain used to be that his bipartisan appeal would make him a sure bet in a presidential race--if only he could get past the Republican primary. But as more and more of the party establishment climb aboard a campaign that McCain has not yet even formally launched, it's starting to look as if the opposite may be true. By trying to become the perfect candidate for the primaries, McCain could be creating difficulties for himself in a general election.

McCain is even beginning to peddle talk of war with Iran. Here's what JMac said in Rudy's NYC territory yesterday: - Sen. John McCain told a pro-Israel audience in Manhattan yesterday that Iran is "a possibly deranged and surely dangerous regime." Although he called war with Iran a last resort, he added, "There is only one thing worse than a military solution, and that, my friends, is a nuclear-armed Iran."

Is someone afraid of Rudy?

2008: Obama in NH

2006-12-10T21:19:00.000-05:00

Dem superstar Obama journeyed across New Hampshire today, leaving stunned, smitten and screaming crowds in his wake. He posed for pics with toddlers, revved up cheering Dem crowds, and yet still tried to play down the deafening buzz surrounding his apparent run in 2008.

“It is flattering to get a lot of attention, although I must say it is baffling,” he said here late this afternoon.
“I think to some degree I’ve become a short-hand or symbol or stand-in for a spirit that the last election in New Hampshire represented,” he said. “It’s a spirit that says we are looking for something different — we want something new.”

Better get used to it, BO. Granite State Dems are fawning over him, urging him to run and pledging support at every turn. And it's the same across the country. Obama fever is here to stay, and it looks like it just might blow Hillary out of the '08 pond. Will she even make a run?

Quick Hits

2006-12-09T18:20:00.000-05:00

Possible '08 GOP candidate Sam Brownback pulled off one of the weirdest political stunts in at least a few years last night. He spent a night at the infamous Angola State Prison in Louisiana, apparently trying to either generate some much-needed buzz for his faltering campaign or to drum up the convict vote. Isn't that Dem territory? But since the inmates at ASP can't vote, the only explanation is that Brownback is one desperate man. - On Friday night, Brownback joined hundreds of inmates at a prayer service before prison officials escorted him to his modest sleeping quarters. On Saturday morning, he emerged from his 7-by-10-foot cell to tour the maximum-security facility and take a walk down death row. "There aren't probably a lot of votes for me here," he said. "There can be a lot of prayers, though." - And here PB though that the only prison inmate a politician might visit would be Jack Abramoff.

Barack Obama is making his first stop in New Hampshire on Sunday, venturing forth for a big Dem shindig in the Granite State. Obama says that his "internal clock" told him to stay away from NH until now. Internal clock? And you though Brownback was weird... This probably means that Obama is on the cusp of his official 2008 announcement, trying to steal the spotlight from the early '07 launches of the Clinton and Kerry campaigns.

Retiring GOP Senate leader Bill Frist got hammered by both parties on the last day of the 109th Congress for his perceived role in the Republican loss in November and his shifty maneuvering to insert Tennessee pork in spending bills. Quite a fall from one year ago, when Frist was considered a front runner in the '08 race...

2008: Rudy On Iraq, Mirroring McCain

2006-12-09T18:01:00.000-05:00

GOP '08 contender Rudy Giuliani is trying to keep up with John McCain by also harshly criticizing the just released Iraq Study Group report. In keeping with his tough on national security image that he so desperately needs to retain, Rudy match JMac's vitriol in shredding the findings of the ISG. In fact, Rudy was so eager to pounce on Baker/Hamilton that he dissed the report before it even came out. His interview with a conservative radio talk-show host showed that Rudy matches Pres. bush's "resolve" in finishing off Iraq.

I think...I don't think we should leave Iraq, certainly not under the present situation that Iraq is in, and with the consequences that would flow from leaving Iraq. I think this is a question of if...if we were to walk out of Iraq, it would satisfy a certain degree of public opinion right now, and I think within six months or a year, the people who made that decision would be very much...would regret it, and I think the American people would, because the terrorists understand how important Iraq is. They are putting tremendous resources into defeating us in Iraq. If they defeat us in Iraq, Iran all of a sudden has a very established strong neighbor that's an ally. You have a place that can be a breeding ground of terrorism. And the reality is, it will make the terrorist movement that much stronger. And I think that we have to figure out, as the President is doing now, I think in a very deliberate way, what's a better strategy, how do we succeed in Iraq, what can we learn from the mistakes we may have made, and then as we go forward, do a better job of creating a stable situation in Iraq. But the idea of leaving Iraq, I think, is a terrible mistake.

Smart move by Rudy in heading off McCain's predictable ISG bashing. But not a smart move in agreeing with JMac. McCain's Iraq policy is the one area in which most voters disagree with the AZ maverick. If Rudy were to offer the American people some of his "brilliant" advice on security issues that he apparently has built up since 9/11 he would have distanced himself from his main rival on an important topic. Offer a new path on Iraq, though still preserving his "tough on terror" image, and he could have watched moderate GOPers and independents fawn over him ASAP.

But maybe Rudy needs to shadow McCain's hard-line stances on these issues. Some conservatives believe that having liberal Rudy in the GOP mix is the best thing JMac has going for him right now.

Anyhow, the full interview of Giuliani is interesting, producing some nice tidbits about Rudy's changing ideology and still-weak policy skills. He does flatly say that he's anti-gay marriage. Wow...

2008 Quick Hits: Hillary gets some love + A big Edwards announcement?

2006-12-08T19:12:00.000-05:00

Charlie Cook of the National Journal has posted a new analysis of the 2008 Democratic field. He specifically touts Hillary as being in full comeback mode, detailing how her poll numbers have gotten better over the last few months. - While Democratic circles are buzzing with speculation that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois might jump into the race for the party's 2008 presidential nomination, little notice is given to the fact that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's stock has gone up the most in recent months. - But her rising poll numbers only appear when Obama or Al Gore are not mentioned. She's still the uber-favorite without those two Dem rock stars, but is vulnerable when they're in the race. Yes, Cook does give a nice analysis of Hillary's good news in the polls. But a lot of that good news is based on one big if: If Obama and Gore don't run in '08. Once those two enter the mix, Hillary slips. Cook kind of missed that whole point. You can't assume anything in politics.

Some controversy hits the McCain '08 campaign. JMac's new campaign manager, Terry Nelson, is the apparent mastermind behind that nasty ad from the Corker Senate folks bashing Dem Harold Ford. You know, the "racist" playboy "call me!" ad. Not much has been made of this yet, but look for this to pop up again if McCain gets the GOP nomination and hits his Dem opponent hard on TV. There's bound to be calls of foul play from the Dems. And what if JMac faces off against Barack Obama? Yikes - too hot to handle that one. You can sure that accusations will pour forth from Obama's camp immediately. Perhaps to BO's advantage, though. The Corker ad, although playing well in "good 'ol boy" Tennessee, was viewed as going too far by many voters sick of negative campaigning.

John Edwards may try to find a place as a niche candidate with Dem unions just as Hillary is drumming up their support for 2008. Edwards received the Paul Wellstone Award from the AFL-CIO at their big summit today. Edwards will need a big spigot of union cash and a huge supply of sure-thing voters if he wants to compete with H or BO. But he'll need to start his campaign if he expects a rush of support. Could he be preparing to make his '08 announcement on the December 12th edition of Hardball? He's Chris's big guest for the Hardball College Tour that day from JE's home state of NC. You make the call...

Iraq Study Group Report: Political Ramifications

2006-12-07T12:39:00.000-05:00

No question that the Baker/Hamilton smack down of Bush and Co. is bad news for the Bush administration and Republicans in general. It repudiates almost all of the apparent spin from the White House about Iraq. It turns out that Iraq is in a civil war, we are losing the war, and that we do need to leave very soon. Between the elections and now this, the WH and GOP have received a double "thumpin'". But the Bush White House is in full-on lame duck mode, so there reaction - especially one so typical - is inconsequential. The real suspense is in how the real political players will handle this.

The Democrats have already pounced on Pres. Bush and the GOP with swift calls for "increased oversight"and plans for Senate hearings that, they believe, would force the White House to follow the ISG plan to the letter. They'll look at strategy and troop levels and all the stuff they love to pry open. This is what voters wanted when they swept them into DC power.

But vicious hearings that try to lay blame will get them nowhere. It's obvious that the bipartisanship shtick from both sides has been played out. The Republicans are back to calling Dems "obstructionists" while the Dems are simply out for GOP blood. And rumors are flying that not only will the Iraq hearings include uncovering suspected dirt on Halliburton and Cheney, but that the dreaded "I" word - impeachment - will crop up once more. Speaker Pelosi is feeling the heat from some hard-core liberals to back off on her "no impeachment" pledge and hammer W in the wake of his rebuke from the ISG. Will she cave? Hard to tell. But even appearing to try any rash and partisan moves will result in a severe backlash against the Dems, possibly hurting the chances of any top Dems involved in the proceedings (Hillary, Obama, Biden). The Dems have been handed yet another gift this year - a full-fledged swat against the backside of Pres. Bush by a respected bipartisan panel. They can't blow it by losing their heads in a left-wing lust for GOP heads to roll.

And there is one 2008 presidential candidate that got punched in the gut in the aftermath of the report: John McCain. His much publicized call for 40,000 more US troops to be sent to Iraq has been swatted down by the ISG, essentially making JMac a man with no plan for Iraq. However, he won't go down without a fight. Here he is bashing the ISG report:

``I do not agree that you can take the trainers that are necessary, much less the troops that are necessary, from the existing forces there,'' McCain said after a meeting at the White House. ``There is only one thing worse than an overstressed military, and that's a defeated military.''

``You have to understand that the Iranians and the Syrians do not have common interests with us.'' And the report's conclusion that peace between Israelis and Palestinians is integral to success in Iraq ``seems tenuous at best,'' he said in a statement later.

2008 Update: Edwards Searching for Cash

2006-12-06T10:33:00.000-05:00

John Edwards needs cash; desperately. After showing in the past couple of days that he's really serious about running, doing that by hiring a campaign manager (ex-Congressman David Bonior), Edwards still faces a crippling quandary involving money. Or, to be more precise, the lack of it. Unlike other big name Dems like Kerry and Hillary, Edwards has no leftover campaign cash from previous elections. Actually, Edwards is still in debt from his unsuccessful '04 run. He's got no money on standby for when he announces his campaign and won't get any until that announcement is official.

But the Edwards crew is not feeling the heat. They're convinced that JE will rake in some serious dough once he hits the campaign trail, citing his mega-fundraising during both of his campaigns in 2004. And his pre-made connections in Dem donor circles will help, too.

Although he cannot legally accept donations for a 2008 bid until after filing paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission, Edwards and his team already are lining up support among donors.
"We have a good list and are checking to see who is naughty and nice," said Fred Baron, the finance chairman for Edwards' 2004 campaign.

Maybe Edwards would have some cash of his own to start his run if he didn't spend so much green on PS3's...

2008 Update: Obama

2006-12-05T10:38:00.000-05:00

Obama, still the Dem superstar, continues to send shockwaves through the field of Dem contenders in '08 with his coy - yet forceful - attitude concerning a presidential run.

Senator Barack Obama’s announcement that he might run for president is altering the early dynamics of the 2008 Democratic nominating contest. The move has created complications for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as she steps up her own preparations and is posing a threat to lesser-known Democrats trying to position themselves as alternatives to Mrs. Clinton, Democrats said Sunday.

Yes, it's true. The Dems have been in a tizzy ever since that unforgettable moment when Barack told the world that he's "thinking " about running in 2008. His early bombshell caused the long shots Vilsack and Bayh to ramp up their campaign and enter the race immediately. He's also caused big problems for Hillary. Besides intruding on her NY turf, Obama has also emerged as both the perfect anti-Hillary and a fundraising machine, lining up big-name donors to snatch away from the Hillary campaign. And despite his kind words for H at his NY event ("I'm not one of these people who thinks she can't win"), Obama knows that he can easily tap into both left-wing and centrist Dems that can't stand either Hillary's early pro-war position or her icy, polarizing, and secular image. Obama can draw all kinds to the Democrats in '08. Hillary can't say that.

But can he get over the minor problem of his infamous middle name? (It's Hussein. Yikes...). You know the GOP will have fun with that.

Either way, Obama faces one hurdle that he positively cannot control or have much impact on. And that's his seeming perfection. It's like the guy was manufactured for Howard Dean in Hollywood. Actually, his camapign seems right out of a certain 'West Wing' storyline. The charming, populist, minority Dem, played by Jimmy Smits, running for Prez against the feisty, moderate GOPer in Alan Alda. Obama vs. McCain, anyone? Smits won the "primary" while facing a Hillaryesque juggernaut candidate, and then beat McCain...er, Alda, in the "general". Can reality follow the playbook of TV?

There is bound to be something to slow down Obama fever; it just hasn't popped up yet.

2008 Quick Hits

2006-12-03T17:17:00.000-05:00

Dem Tom Vilsack gave his first major interview as a presidential candidate to George Stephanopoulos on "This Week" today, not really accomplishing much beyond improving name recognition. Once again, he's got a good background story, but not much else. No substance.

However, Vilsack did just announce that he will raise $1 million for his fledgling campaign by the end of the year. And Vilsack also gained the endorsement and exuberant backing of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, an important feat. - "When Tom Vilsack gets out there on that road...people are going to see what we've seen...You are at the beginning of a very successful campaign for the next president of the United States." - But not a remarkable one, considering that Harkin is an Iowa Sen. and he went on the road in IA for the drastically unsuccessful Dean campaign in the '04 caucuses. Vilsack will have to pick up more substantial non-Iowan names to be considered a major player.

Hillary Clinton is "actively considering" an impending presidential run for '08, according to one of her many advisers. - "As Sen. Clinton said, she was going to begin actively considering a presidential run after the election. That process has begun," said Howard Wolfson. - She is no doubt pressing for attention after the early Vilsack entry.

2008:Vilsack Gets Serious (sort of)

2006-12-02T14:37:00.001-05:00

The first official '08 presidential candidate launched his first real campaign tour yesterday. Tom Vilsack, that greenhorn Iowan Dem, swung through New Hampshire, stopping at key places in the second-most important primary state for 2008. He barely registered a response from Granite State residents, mainly drawing party die-hards to his various events. But it's a start for the Dem long shot. He knows that, while not having it wrapped up by any means, he probably is assured of a strong showing in his home state. That means he must jet around to every other key primary state in order to actually let Dem voters know that he exists. That seems to be his biggest problem so far - and in the future. Although another problem may crop up as attention is shined upon the many scandals - major and minor- that have embroiled Gov. Vilsack while in office. That issue may have legs in this era of extreme voter anger towards corrupt officials.

Vilsack at least has already formulated his campaign strategy, although it's one that seems to entirely hinge on John McCain becoming the face of the GOP and then winning the GOP primary. Vilsack has become quite skilled in McCain bashing. His only policy talk while campaigning in NH was focused entirely on JMac's "more troops" Iraq plan.

"We've stretched our military too thin," Vilsack said, "and I'm not quite sure where Senator McCain thinks we can get these troops. I think he is wrong." Vilsack refused to speculate on whether McCain will be the GOP nominee.

He then proceeded to become more simplistic about foreign policy:

Vilsack said that as a governor, he expects to face questions about his knowledge of foreign policy.
"I know this," he said, "The current direction of our country is not one that we're very excited about. We don't like the notion that people around the world don't like us, are not inspired by us, and some fear us."

If elections were won by being the most ardent, energetic and earliest campaigner, Vilsack would have the Dem nomination in the bag. But they're not. Gotta give him props for getting out there, though. He gives sites like PB a valid excuse to write about '08. Thanks, Tom!

Scandal Engulfs Romney

2006-12-01T18:14:00.000-05:00

Besides the ongoing issue of his being a Mormon, GOP '08 contender Mitt Romney now has a new controversy to deal with. Although the "scandal" is bound to pass within days, it is another poor reflection of - and another sign of something bordering hypocrisy involving - Romney. A Boston Globe investigation (a fabulous headline: "Illegal immigrants toiled for governor") has revealed that Governor Romney had employed at least four illegal immigrants for several years in tending to the vast lawn of his Massachusetts home. The former workers indicated that Romney never inquired about their immigrant status. And then comes the killer for Romney.

Asked by a reporter yesterday about his use of Community Lawn Service with a Heart, Romney, who was hosting the Republican Governors Association conference in Miami, said, "Aw, geez," and walked away.

"Aw, geez"? Not the answer Romney needed to give. It's a bit too guilt-ridden. An aide to Romney denied that Romney knew that the lawn care workers were in the US illegally. He also got into what lawn care providers were "legitimate" in Mass.

Eric Fehrnstrom, the Massachusetts governor's communications director, said Friday that Romney was not aware of or "knowledgeable about the information alleged."
"Governor Romney hired a legitimate Massachusetts lawn service company to take care of his yard. He knows the owner as a decent, hardworking person who is a legal resident," Fehrnstrom said.

With Romney's harsh actions concerning illegal immigration this year, this revelation is rather embarrassing. Some in the GOP have already accused him of flip-flopping (he is from Mass., Kerry's turf) on many issues, from abortion to gays. This certainly won't help.

Obama Gets Trashed

2006-12-01T11:42:00.000-05:00

Mega-evangelical Rick Warren's invitation for Barack Obama, that liberal demi-god, to speak at Warren's AIDS summit today is still stirring up a firestorm among the evangelical community. They are making it known that they don't support Obama's lefty leanings on social issues, with some evangelical leaders issuing a blistering press release condemning not only the "pro-death" (there's a new word for pro-choicers) Obama but Warren as well.

In the strongest possible terms, we oppose Rick Warren's decision to ignore Senator Obama's clear pro-death stance and invite him to Saddleback Church anyway. If Senator Obama cannot defend the most helpless citizens in our country, he has nothing to say to the AIDS crisis. You cannot fight one evil while justifying another.

It's not as if Obama expected support from Christian conservatives, but this shows that Hillary isn't the only "satanic" Dem that the evangelicals will oppose with fire, brimstone, and angry statements. Will this make a moderate Vilsack more attractive to the Dems? Hmm....no. The evangelicals have lost their influence and are not nearly as formidable as they were in 2004. Yes, they can raise cash and throw some nasty slime. But voters are not really caring about them any more. Obama needs to watch his back, but no more than that.

Vilsack Enters '08 Race. What Next?

2006-11-30T13:51:00.000-05:00

Tom Vilsack, the lovable Iowa Gov., has formally entered the race for the Democratic nomination in 2008, blasting Pres. Bush while at the same time trying to retain the homespun charm that is his one and only asset.

Yes, PB thinks that Vilsack is in over his head, no doubt soon to wither in the face of the Dem big guns of Hillary, Gore, and Obama. While he has good governmental experience running Iowa, that's not enough to help TV to get over his crippling lack of any name recognition, any sort of foreign policy strategy and experience, and the fact that even his Iowan constituents don't think he should run.

Yet some (Okay... Chris Cillizza in The Fix) see potential in Mr. Vilsack, touting him as the "perfect candidate" for the Dems. Cillizza has a case against Vilsack next week, so this TV love-fest is all fun and games, but still. In his "case for Vilsack" post, Cillizza beleives that Vilsack's touching "life story" (orphan, etc...) will help him win support and votes. Yes, Bill Clinton had a struggling childhood story, but he also had charm, charisma, and some actual presidential-sounding ideas. Vilsack, although cuddly, has none of that. And what if he doesn't even win the Iowa caucus? CC needs a better case for Vilsack, but he won't find it. Because there is no reasonable chance that TV will win, let alone make a good showing in the primaries.

Bottom line - Vilsack is just seeing where an early bid can take him; nothing more. He probably doesn't have "illusions of grandeur", as one Iowan put it, but he does have an eye on a Veep slot. Come on; a moderate, white, male, likable Midwesterner paired with Hillary or Obama? That has a chance to be political gold.

Frist Says No To '08 Run

2006-11-29T14:29:00.000-05:00

Today, Bill Frist added his name to the growing list of politicians not running in their respective party presidential primaries in 2008. The purported reason given out by Frist was that he anted a break from politics.

"Karyn and I will take a sabbatical from public life," Frist said in a statement. "At this point a return to private life will allow me to return to my professional roots as a healer and to refocus my creative energies on innovative solutions to seemingly insurmountable challenges Americans face."
"In the short term, I will resume my regular medical mission trips as a doctor around the world to serve those in poverty, in famine, and in civil war," Frist said.

That's nice. But what Frist won't delve into is the obvious fact that he was dropping fast as even a possible Veep contender for the GOP. His deep involvement in the Terri Schiavo fiasco and myriad ethical issues caused many in the GOP to sour on Frist. He seemed GWBush's sure successor after the GOP victory in '04, when Frist and W became politically close.

But his missteps and the drastic change in the mood of voters had set Frist back in any attempt to revitalize his already ailing '08 bid. This simply further paves the way for the inevitable: an awkward showdown between Giuliani and McCain.

So much for the multitude of Frist 2008 merchandise.

Newt Gets Tough

2006-11-28T11:02:00.000-05:00

Quasi-presidential candidate Newt Gingrich gave a hard hitting speech last night in, of all places, New Hampshire. He went back to his popular Armageddon talk of this summer, when he seemed to be on Fox News every night spouting off about "The End" and the imminent beginning of WW III. He continued his assault on free speech in this "age of terror", actually calling for a semi-reversal of free speech laws during wartime.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich yesterday said the country will be forced to reexamine freedom of speech to meet the threat of terrorism.

Gingrich, speaking at a Manchester awards banquet, said a "different set of rules" may be needed to reduce terrorists' ability to use the Internet and free speech to recruit and get out their message.

"We need to get ahead of the curve before we actually lose a city, which I think could happen in the next decade," said Gingrich, a Republican who helped engineer the GOP's takeover of Congress in 1994.

"Lose a city". Perfect fodder for his right-wing base. Maybe this is how he feels he can "make" conservatives push for a Newt '08 campaign. Hey, whatever works for Newt. Maybe the GOP will see him as the only alternative to McCain and Rudy's "GOP-lite".

UPDATE: PB just discovered Newt's new column in Human Events Online. Besides relaying his family trip to Mount Vernon (!!??), Gingrich goes beyond hawkish on Iraq, trashing the Baker-Hamilton commission as worthless (even though they're backing Bush on Iraq) and calling for a final push in Mesopotamia for "victory or death". Looks like Newt is embroiled in a tit-for-tat with McCain over who can be the greater hawk on Iraq.

Quinnipiac Thermometer: Rudy, McCain, and Obama are Hot

2006-11-28T10:35:00.000-05:00

Quinnipiac University's quarterly "national thermometer reading" poll is arguably the best poll out there. No, not for predicting who will win anything, but simply for fun. It rates the "feelings" and "warmth" of voters toward national figures - presidential candidates and others. You have Pelosi and the Clinton's in there, as well as GWBush.

So, what are the results? Very good news for the three guys in this post's heading.

Here are the scores and the percentage not knowing enough about the figure to make a decision:

1) Rudolph Giuliani - 64.2. (9)
2) Sen. Barack Obama 58.8 (41)
3) Sen. John McCain 57.7 (12)
4) Condoleezza Rice - 56.1 (7)
5) Bill Clinton - 55.8 (1)
6) Sen. Joseph Lieberman - 52.7 (16)
7) NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg - 51.1 (44)
8) John Edwards - 49.9 (20)
9) Sen. Hillary Clinton - 49 (1)
10) N.M. Gov. Bill Richardson - 47.7 (65)
11) Sen. Joseph Biden 47 (52)
12) Nancy Pelosi 46.9 (34)
13) Gov. Mitt Romney - 45.9 (64)
14) Former VP Al Gore - 44.9 (3)
15) President George Bush - 43.8 (1)
16) Sen. Evan Bayh - 43.3 (75)
17) Newt Gingrich - 42 (15)
18) Sen. Bill Frist - 41.5 (53)
19) Sen. Harry Reid - 41.2 (61)
20) Sen. John Kerry - 39.6 (5)

How low can John Kerry go? Dead last? Ouch...

Rudy is still the most loved politicians in the country, getting an incredible 64% "warmth" rating. McCain is not far behind, but those that like JMac also undoubtedly love Rudy, making the hero of 9/11 probably their overall choice. The GOP - and McCain's team - are going to have to do some serious trashing to knock Rudy off of his 9/11 pedestal.

However, it's a bit foolish to look too much into a poll based on "feelings". Otherwise, Winnie the Pooh would be Prez.

Quick Hits

2006-11-27T14:10:00.000-05:00

The Hotline's Blogometer has the early list of left and right fringe bloggers who are already attempting to sabotage presidential campaigns. The right hates Mormon Romney, "maverick" McCain and liberal Giuliani. The left is fighting all of the above. - 'Apart from selecting their own nominee, MyDD's Chris Bowers announces the netroots second biggest '08 primary priority is "to take McCain and Giuliani down, and significantly tarnish their images among Democrats and Independents." Bowers writes: "If we can succeed in taking out McCain and Giuliani, it would virtually make the Democratic primary the general election. It is in this way that we can virtually win the 2008 election in 2007." ' - But they're also trashing Hillary, still finding her much too centrist for their tastes. Will she be brought down by a Dean '04-style net campaign backing someone like Al Gore? Hard to say, but a Gore is a much stronger candidate than the greenhorn Dean was, so the lefty webheads are sure to push him to run early.

Under the radar: George Allen, in a fitting tribute to his failed reelection campaign, is making one last splash in the Senate by introducing a bill that would lift a ban on carrying concealed weapons into national parks. As if his political career wasn't on life support already...

The gambling site Gambling 911 gives Barack Obama 10 to 1 odds of being the next president. Good odds for a newcomer to the race. Will that influence Obama 's final decision to run? Maybe not. Still, he's got to like those odds. But maybe the real surprise is that Al Gore has jumped up to odds of 9 to 2 of becoming president. Do the odds makers know something that we political sites do not?

Speaking of Al Gore, he noted that he believed that GOPer John McCain is a "capable guy". Not quite praise, but it is unusual for a Dem. Is that an underhanded endorsement from Al, meaning that he's satisfied with McCain if the Dem loses and will stay out of the race?More likely that he's trying to burnish his bipartisan skills for his imminent run in '08.

2008 Sleeper: Phil Bredesen

2006-11-26T07:59:00.000-05:00

Bredesen is popular, a moderate Democrat, and is a southern Governor - three things that must place him in the '08 Dem discussion. Some have had him marked as presidential material for quite awhile.

Feb. 2005: The Democrats have noticed that senators and Northeasterners don't do especially well in presidential elections. That has led to some talk of running a governor from the South in 2008, but Southern Democratic governors are in short supply.
Of those who remain, my governor, Phil Bredesen, is starting to get some attention. A while back, The Economist called him a governor with a CEO approach. And The New Republic recently made him the subject of a cover story focusing on his ability to win over the opposition.

The Dem field has obviously gone through several momentous changes since Feb. '05, but Bredesen still deserves a look.

Bredesen has been able to cobble together a bipartisan coalition in Tenn. that has gotten legislation done. His previous campaign for Governor was based on bipartisanship. That's big with voters, as we've seen with the midterms. He's focused on health care , another winning issue for candidates. And, most importantly, he's from the South. While he's certainly no Bill Clintonesque populist, he still has that whole Southern aura going for him, making him gold with voters if Edwards decides not to run.

But can he really make it through the Dem primary? Past Hillary and Obama? No. But a clean and positive mini-run early in the primaries could set Bredesen up for a dream Veep slot with Hillary or Obama. They both could use a white, male, Southern moderate as their running mates, countering the fact that both are fairly liberal and both are not Southern men.

Bottom Line - Bredesen is the very definition of a sleeper. He's never stated any intention to run and is still a popular and successful governor in Tennessee. Those are two strikes against him making any sort of run in '08. But his perfect credentials are hard to ignore. His Southern moderate message would make a great pairing with Hillary or Obama, especially if Mitt Romney - the dreaded Mormon - were to somehow get the GOP nomination. Southerners are political gold (except for Edwards, but that's another story) in presidential races, making Phil Bredesen a solid Dem sleeper in 2008.

No Love For Mormons = Bad News For Romney

2006-11-25T11:07:00.000-05:00

An undereported new poll that was released on Monday has some startling results concerning both the course of the GOP primary in '08 and the state of religious tolerance in the US. The poll shows that 43% of Americans will not consider voting for a Mormon presidential candidate (i.e. Mitt Romney).

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, which conducted the survey on its own, said Romney already faces difficulty if he decides to run because he's been governor of liberal Massachusetts and is not very well known.
"I think that any time you have a number as high as 43% saying they won't vote for somebody it's a surprise," Rasmussen said. "It is one more hurdle for someone who already has a big hill to climb."

Why the Mormon rage? While mainstream America has always been leery towards the LDS sect, recent events - like the Warren Jeffs polygamy case (which Romney is getting slammed for in the liberal blogosphere) and other sordid affairs involving LDS - have darkened their public reputation further.

Either way, 43% is a ridiculously high number, possibly forcing Mitt to bow out of the race early. He will soon have to face the painful truth that nearly half of all voters will not even think about voting for him. But Romney feels that he's still in the race, desperately trying to downplay his Mormon faith while blabbering on about the GOP's top saint, Reagan.

The day after the midterm elections, Governor Mitt Romney, reflecting on the GOP's punishing losses, issued a clarion call to conservatives: "We must return to the common-sense Reagan Republican ideals."
Three days later, at a State House Veterans Day ceremony, Romney invoked the former president again, saying, "As Ronald Reagan once said, 'I have seen four wars during my lifetime and none of them began because America was too strong.' "

But can his hard right turn and continued discussion of Reagan help him convince voters - at least GOP voters - to ignore his LDS connection? That poll must come as a surprise to his campaign, especially as it came after Romney's serious bout of campaigning pre and post-election. One would think that voters would have seen past the Mormon thing by now with Mitt becoming a more familiar figure.

The poll does raise another interesting question: What would happen if Romney, the Mormon, and Obama, the black Dem, were the presidential candidates in '08?

Gingrich Denies Presidential Ambitions?

2006-11-23T08:30:00.000-05:00

The spokesman for Newt Gingrich gave a blistering response to the early web posting of Fortune Magazine's interview with the conservative superstar. Rick Tyler, the spokesman, is denying that Newt ever said that he was silently running in '08 and is basically calling Fortune disingenuous (must have got that from Mitt).

Not exactly clear what this means or why Newt felt he had to do this. Anyone who has seen his public speeches or his myriad appearances on Fox knows that the man is running for president. This response could simply be a ploy to scare grassroots conservatives into redoubling their efforts on behalf of Newt. Is he trying to ignite a draft campaign?

New GOP Poll

2006-11-22T11:55:00.000-05:00

A new CNN poll out today shows the GOP race in '08 is basically two-way, with Rudy Giuliani virtually tied with John McCain at the top of the Republican heap. Gingrich and Romney haven't gained much ground since summer, struggling against a tide of moderate support.

Giuliani 33%
McCain 30%
Gingrich 9%
Romney 9%
Frist 3%
Thompson 3%
Brownback 2%
Hunter 2%
Pataki 1%

Romney Gets Tough

2006-11-22T11:24:00.000-05:00

GOP '08 contender Mitt Romney blasted his two biggest hurdles to the nomination, trashing Rudy Giuliani and John McCain as not "real" conservatives and even calling McCain disingenuous. Ouch.

"I'm a conservative Republican. There's no question about that," Mr. Romney told the Washington Examiner. "I'm at a different place than the other two."

Mr. Romney said his positions were more conservative than those of the other men on immigration, campaign finance restrictions, same-sex marriage, and interrogation of detainees, but the governor took particular aim at Mr. McCain for claiming to oppose legalized gay marriage while also opposing a federal constitutional amendment to outlaw the practice.

"In my opinion, it's disingenuous," Mr. Romney said. "Look, if somebody says they're in favor of gay marriage, I respect that view. If someone says, like I do, that I oppose same-sex marriage, I respect that view. But those who try and pretend to have it both ways, I find it to be disingenuous."

This is a clear effort from Romney to quickly force GOP conservatives to take a hard look at the conservative credentials of Rudy and JMac. He's down in the polls and still can;t break through with the right over his Mormon faith. He must play hardball if he wants to make a primary splash.

Meanwhile, here are some little known facts about the outgoing Mass. Guv.

Political Buzz Exclusive - 5 Questions For... House Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi

2006-11-21T11:53:00.000-05:00

In a Political Buzz exclusive, we are pleased to welcome Democratic Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker-designate of the House, as today's guest blogger.

As the first woman Speaker in the history of the House, Speaker Pelosi will have quite a challenge dealing with House Republicans, President Bush, and some members of her own party. Can she and the Democrats hold it all together and do something that voters felt the GOP never accomplished when they were leading Congress; actually get something done?

This also inaugurate PB's new interview and guest blog series "5 Questions For...", a series that will pose five important questions to the most influential and talked-about people in politics today.

We gave Congresswoman Pelosi five questions on some of the more pressing issues facing her as she moves into the top position in the House. Here is her guest blog with the answers:

...................................

1. Can the current atmosphere of bipartisanship between Democrats and Republicans last?

House Democrats are committed to civility and restoring bipartisan administration of the House. Under the Republican controlled House, Democrats were all but shut out of the legislative process and in doing so, millions of voices were silenced. Under Democratic leadership, we will ensure the rights of the minority, so that the voices of all Americans are heard. Our commitment to integrity, to civility, and to fiscal responsibility will not waver.

2. There is already talk of you blocking some moderate Democrats from leading House committees. Also, you have now backed John Murtha for House Majority Leader over the more moderate Steny Hoyer. As Speaker, will you allow moderate Democrats into the House power structure?

Of course. I have said many times, I intend to govern from the middle. The diversity of our Democratic Caucus is our greatest strength, and I will work with all our Members to form consensus on the critical issues facing the American people.

3. You have said that impeachment of President Bush is "off the table". But will that change if relations between Democrats and the President sour? How far will House Democrats go in their promised investigations of the Bush administration?

Congress has the Constitutional obligation of oversight and we will uphold the Constitution, but House Democrats will not seek to impeach the President. The last six years have been marked by a complete abdication of the legislative branch's job to ensure checks and balances so we have a lot of work to do, but our primary goal in Congress is to go forward with an agenda on issues that are relevant to the lives of the American people, addressing their priorities first. One example of an investigation needed, is accountability for the billions in taxpayer dollars that have been either misspent or are unaccounted for in Iraq. House Republicans blocked the formation of an independent commission to investigate the mismanagement of the reconstruction effort, and blocked a subpoena seeking all reconstruction contract communications between Vice President Cheney's office and Halliburton. For other possible investigations, you may be interested in reading the nonpartisan GAO's recent report on suggested areas for oversight or visit soon to be Chairman of the Government Reform committee Rep. Henry Waxman's web site.

4. What is your plan for taxes? Will there be rollbacks of some of President Bush's tax cuts?

In our first 100 legislative hours, we are going to start by addressing two issues of economic fairness. Oil companies are raking in outrageous record profits and these record gasoline prices and profits are the direct result of more than five years of failed policies of the Bush Administration. Bush Republican energy policies were designed for and by special interests. After developing their energy policy in secret, the Cheney Energy Task Force's agenda has served the financial interests of the energy industry while consumers have suffered. We will end tax giveaways to Big Oil companies and use that money to invest in alternative energy. We are also going to fix the Medicare prescription drug benefit by negotiating lower drug prices (like the Veterans Administration does) and by ending wasteful tax giveaways to drug companies and HMOs.

5. Iraq. Do Democrats have a plan for winning the war? What can Democrats do to actually influence Iraq policy or start the withdrawal of US troops?

I hope that the exit of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld will mark the start of a new policy in Iraq and signal a willingness by the Administration to work with the Congress to devise a better way forward. Mr. Rumsfeld sent our troops to Iraq without sufficient equipment or a plan to compete their mission, provided thousands of weapons to the Iraqi army without an ability to determine whether they would be used against the insurgents or our troops, and brought our Army to the lowest level of readiness since Vietnam. Democrats support reclaiming American leadership by transforming the failed Bush Administration policies here at home, in Iraq and around the world. I support the Murtha plan for strategic redeployment of US forces from Iraq as soon as practicable and refocus on fighting terrorism. Democrats will push a policy requiring the Iraqis to take responsibility for their country and begin the phased redeployment of U.S. forces from Iraq. We also will work to double the size of Special Forces to confront terrorist networks like al Qaeda while rebuilding a state-of-the-art military capable of projecting power wherever necessary. In our first 100 hours, we will also implement the bipartisan 9/11 Commission proposals to make America more secure. To learn more about our plan for Real Security, visit http://www.Democrats.gov/.

Thank you for the opportunity to talk with Political Buzz readers,
Nancy Pelosi
Speaker-designate

Obama Policy Speech

2006-11-21T09:49:00.000-05:00

Barack Obama made his first real policy speech since throwing his name into the Democratic presidential ring for '08. His talk yesterday at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs covered everything on Iraq, and clearly set up Obama to try to grab the Dem anti-war vote from any other Dem, including Hillary. In the speech, Obama pulled a turnaround from some of his earlier positions on Iraq, now urging that US troops be withdrawn from Iraq starting in 6 months.

"Our troops can help suppress the violence, but they cannot solve its root causes," Obama told members of the council. "And all the troops in the world won't be able to force Shia, Sunni, and Kurd to sit down at a table, resolve their differences, and forge a lasting peace."

Obama had been considered a war supporter when he first burst into the Senate in '04, and was denounced as a neo-con hawk by the anti-war left after several tough comments on Iran that seemingly backed the idea of bombing the Mullahs to prevent them from getting nukes.

Will this be seen as a Kerryesque flip-flop? No, because most still view Obama as a political greenhorn. But you never know what the GOP will throw at him if he gets the nomination in '08.

Bombshell Gingrich Interview

2006-11-20T16:10:00.000-05:00

Fortune Magazine has a must-read interview with Newt Gingrich. In it, Newt gives us an unfiltered look at the process he is using to decide whether or not he will run for president in 2008. Gingrich says that he is planning on building a grassroots effort to generate powerful right-wing conservative support withing the GOP, basically catapulting him into the race without much effort from himself. He will start a fundraising 527 PAC, however, beginning in December.

The radical realist who defied conventional wisdom 12 years ago by stealing the House out from under the noses of entrenched Democrats now plans a surprise attack for the presidency. "I'm going to tell you something, and whether or not it's plausible given the world you come out of is your problem," he tells Fortune. "I am not 'running' for president. I am seeking to create a movement to win the future by offering a series of solutions so compelling that if the American people say I have to be president, it will happen." So he's running, only without yet formally saying so.

While other potential competitors like Arizona Senator John McCain, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney build staff and hire consultants, Gingrich revealed to Fortune that he plans to create a draft-Newt "wave" by building grassroots support for his health care, national security and energy independence ideas - all of which he has been peddling to corporate audiences over the past six years. "Nice people," Gingrich says of his GOP competitors. "But we're not in the same business. They're running for president. I'm running to change the country."

In December, Gingrich will launch a 527 group, called "American Solutions for Winning the Future," that will enable him to raise and spend unlimited money on behalf of this effort. In January, he will conduct a strategy meeting with advisers. By next fall, he'll decide whether to make a bid official - a late start by any recent historical standard.

So Gingrich has basically been toying with us all along. He is running in '08 - but doesn't want to commit himself to a big-time campaign like the McCain's and Giuliani's just yet. He's smart - he sees the polls placing him 3rd or 4th. He won't let himself get embarrassed. But will his low profile campaign really get him anywhere?

New GOP 2008 Poll

2006-11-20T08:48:00.000-05:00

A new Pew Research poll is out, covering the race for the Republican nomination in '08. In contrast to the flux observed in the latest Dem poll, the GOP is fairly stable. McCain is still on top, leading Giuliani by a slim margin. Both McCain and Rudy have ticked up since the summer. That's mainly due to the drop in support for the outcast George Allen and the wavering Gingrich. The Pew poll was never the kindest to Newt, but other polls have him stable or dropping, as well.

John McCain
29%
Rudy Giuliani
26%
Condoleezza Rice
17%
Newt Gingrich
4%
Mitt Romney
4%
Bill Frist
3%
Sam Brownback
1%
George Allen
--
Other
--
None
6%
Don’t know
10%

Click here for the full numbers.

Romney is perhaps the greatest surprise of this and other GOP polls. He's been talked up as if he were the Republican Obama, yet his poll numbers are going nowhere. It raises questions as to whether the Mormon issue will actually kill Romney's campaign. What other reason could there be? He doesn't have the greatest name recognition outside of Utah but that doesn't fully explain his low single-digit numbers.

Condi's still included in the polls? Why not put Reagan in there, you know, just for kicks? Condi Rice will not run. Period.

Romney to Make Decision After Holidays

2006-11-20T08:35:00.000-05:00

Rising GOP star Mitt Romney has now made it clear that he will announce his 2008 presidential intentions after the holidays. Mitt has enjoyed growing conservative support since solidifying his right-wing positions on social issues and since Newt Gingrich has almost completely ruled out a competitive run in '08. Romney, in their view, is the only true GOP social conservative left who has a real chance to get the nomination. Look for the Romney '08 buzz to only get louder before the end of the year.

One thing Mitt won't have to worry about during his campaign is advertising.

Transcripts of Kerry and Gingrich on FNS

2006-11-19T13:09:00.000-05:00

Click here for the transcript of John Kerry's interview this morning on Fox News Sunday.

Click here for the transcript of Newt Gingrich on FNS.

'Fox News Sunday' Analysis: Kerry + Gingrich

2006-11-19T10:16:00.000-05:00

John Kerry got tentatively grilled by a belligerent Chris Wallace attempting to repeat his Clinton bashing on Fox News Sunday this morning. Wallace got in Kerry's face early, repeatedly slamming Kerry over his "joke" concerning US soldiers and Iraq. And Kerry responded right back at CW...with nothing. It was a repeat of Kerry's '04 Swiftboating. He pooh-poohed the joke fiasco and then went on about "bipartisanship" and "I learned my lessons", but that was it. No rousing Clinton-esque smackdown of Wallace.

Chris Wallace looked no better, hammering away on the silly botched joke for probably half of the interview, ignoring Iraq and Kerry's '08 ambitions until the very end. Poor job.

Kerry comes away form the FNS interview with no real damage, although he hasn't really gained anything from it, either. He gave clear intentions of running again, saying that he will make a decision near the beginning of 2007. But he is still far behind the two-headed monster that is Hillary and Obama. Dems want to continue with the success of the midterms and go for someone new in the presidential ring. Kerry blew his only real chance.

Newt Gingrich gave an uninspired performance on FNS after Kerry. He prattled on about what the GOP must do to regain DC power and relevancy in the nation. Good ideas, but he has noticeably turned down his fiery rhetoric of "World War III" and the "evil" Nancy Pelosi that he spewed during the summer. Has Newt been humbled by the Dem victory? Or is he trying to turn down the 2008 expectations that some conservatives are placing upon him? He is the only real conservative with a reasonable shot at the '08 nomination, and he knows it. He said as much in his appearance. But then he snuffed out the right-wing dreamers by saying that he won't even think about a presidential campaign until "probably September of next year". Oh.

Kerry Update

2006-11-18T18:57:00.000-05:00

John Kerry has crawled in a hole since his infamous pre-election "joke" about US soldiers. No public triumphant speeches after the Dem win. No moves regarding '08 after McCain officially joined the race. He's been nowhere. But he will reemerge - only briefly is a good guess - for an interview with Chris Wallce for Fox News Sunday airing tomorrow. Will he pull a Clinton and get nasty on CW? It wouldn't hurt to garner some publicity and get major props from Dems for parroting Clinton's golden smackdown of Wallace.

Rumors abound that Kerry will use the interview to launch his '08 bid with more "jokes" and a blistering attack on the GOP and Pres. Bush.

Wow - Newt Gingrich is also on FNS tomorrow. Talk about must-see TV.

McCain Update

2006-11-18T10:18:00.000-05:00

Lots of news about the GOP 2008 front-runner:

McCain has hired a champion debate coach from Jerry Falwell's Liberty University (those two are awfully chummy) to help JMac prepare for his '08 run. No doubt he is more than a little worried about fan favorite Rudy in the GOP primary debates. Or is he looking past that and on towards the showdown with Hillary or Barack? What confidence!

A sure sign that you are a presidential candidate: McCain is now taking verbal pot shots from prospective '08 rivals in the GOP. Mike Huckabee blasted JMac yesterday for his campaign finance reform law, saying that McCain drew it up to unfairly favor his own presidential campaign. "McCain was very smart in creating a system where he could take all of this Senate money that he had and turn it over to his presidential campaign to give him a distinct advantage over anyone else who ran," he said. Huckabee then went for the jugular: "I think McCain would be a wonderful vice president." Ouch.

A pre-'08 analysis of a McCain campaign shows all of JMac's good and bad political qualities. Ron Fournier, the author, likes McCain's chances after his recent conservative speechathon, drumming up right-wing support with some serious pandering. But then Fournier goes on about McCain's bipartisan appeal and moderate stances. Yes, it's true that McCain once was a moderate. But no longer. Not sure how one can be bowing before Jerry Falwell and the Heritage Foundation and then be considered a moderate at the same time. McCain is bound to get caught up in the usual political web of abandoning your principles to get elected. His moderation will soon be out the window.

The Edwards Gaffe

2006-11-17T22:30:00.000-05:00

Has Jack Edwards' insatiable appetite for the latest and greatest in video game technology derailed daddy John's '08 presidential ambitions? It seems in between stops on his book tour, John Edwards (okay...his staff) was demanding a brand-new Playstation 3 from Wal-Mart for his precocious kids. This comes after Edwards has repeatedly bashed Wal-Mart for its business policies. Yes; we all know that by now. But the reaction from all parties involved has been frenzied.

A nervous Edwards trying to shake the whole ordeal off:
"My wife Elizabeth was looking for a PlayStation for my kids," Edwards said in an interview. "A young man who volunteers for us, apparently without our knowledge, was looking for a PlayStation 3 for himself and offered to look for one for us. He was not aware that Wal-Mart doesn't provide health insurance or decent pay for many of its employees or of my efforts to change the way Wal-Mart treats its employees."

"He made a mistake by using my name," Edwards said. "He was simply trying to help."

A rightish statement from a proudly gloating Wal-Mart:
"While the rest of America's working families are waiting patiently in line, Senator Edwards wants to cut to the front," (Ouch...)

Huffington Post in a vigorous defense of Edwards:
'Wal-Mart has a smear out on John Edwards.

"While the rest of America's working families are waiting patiently in line, Sen. Edwards wants to cut to the front," the Wal-Mart statement said." That is an official Wal-Mart statement! Have you ever heard anything like that from a company? Is this the business Wal-Mart is in? What right does a corporation have to issue a statement like that about any citizen?'

What - Target was out of PS3's? While this is really a small matter, image is everything for a presidential candidate, and there is no doubt that the GOP will use this against Edwards as the Dem nominee (hahahahaha!) or as part of a Dem ticket. What was this guy thinking?

New Dem Poll On '08 + Gor(e)y Musings

2006-11-17T19:38:00.000-05:00

A new USATODAY/Gallup poll on the many Dem presidential contenders shows that Hillary and Barack are running away with the race. Even Al Gore has taken a back seat to Obama fever. Gore is in a free-fall, with his numbers dropping from 16% last summer to only 9& this month. Obama has catapulted almost straight to the top, trailing only the Hillary juggernaut. Edwards is holding his own, setting up for yet another Veep run - this time with Obama.

Hillary Rodham Clinton
31%
Barack Obama
19%
John Edwards
10%
Al Gore
9%
John Kerry
7%
Joe Biden
4%
Wesley Clark
3%
Bill Richardson
2%
Evan Bayh
2%
Russ Feingold
1%
Tom Daschle
1%
Chris Dodd
1%
Tom Vilsack
1%
Other
2%
None
1%
No opinion
6%

What do all these numbers mean? That it's only a two-way race for the Dems. The full numbers show that Obama is siphoning support from only two sources; Hillary and Gore supporters. Those two saw large drops in their numbers, while the rest of the supporting cast either stayed steady or saw a blip of an increase.

Meanwhile, Al Gore is no longer the flavor of the month. How fickle those Dem voters can be. Though it;s not as if Gore was the best prospective candidate for them. This means that we can expect another doc from Al (great...) Will he team up with Michael Moore and Dick Morris on a scathing and career altering expose` about Hillary, thus securing an Obama win and a possible Veep slot over the lethargically perky Edwards? Morris does predict some sort of Gore involvement in the '08 campaign, be it as a presidential candidate or just the perfect Hillary-stopper.

"The Democratic primaries for president will feature the ‘new Democrats’ of the Bill Clinton variety – as embodied by Hillary – against the new left as embodied by Howard Dean and, increasingly, by Al Gore,” Morris tells NewsMax.

"It will be interesting, but the likely Democratic match-up will be Clinton versus Gore. The bumper sticker of ’92 and ’96 will split in half.”

Bold prediction. But a Gore presidential run is almost completely out of the question by now. Gore and Morris despise H, so a joint effort to back Obama in the primaries and then set up a potentially popular ticket of Obama-Gore is not implausible. Will Dick M be the Donna Brazille of '08? Al sure hopes not...

GOP Inflicts a Foot Wound

2006-11-17T19:07:00.000-05:00

Just when it seemed that Democrats had a;ready placed themselves in an immense self-dug hole with their destructive bickering over the House Majority Leader race, here comes the GOP to trump that story with a boneheaded decision of their own involving House leadership. The GOP reelected John Boehner and Roy Blunt as the top two Republican leaders in the House.

The margin of victory for the two were not close by any stretch, with 147+ GOPers preferring the status quo. Most Republicans said they liked that Boehner and Blunt were politically "savvy". Do they really need "savvy" at this point? Do they realize that it was this status quo that got them kicked out of Congressional leadership? It's hard to top the immediate cat fight started within the Democratic party, but, somehow, the Republicans did. After a midterm in which well over half of voters viewed GOP corruption as their main reason for voting Democrat, it would seem obvious that a House clean-up was in order. After all, Boehner and Blunt were implicated - fairly or not - in the lobbyist takeover of Congress.

This also sets up a House in which it's likely that very little substantial changes will be implemented. Between the infighting and over-caution of the Dems and the embittered and partisan GOP leaders, watch for a possible collapse of the House, with uncertain implications for both parties. But John McCain will get another boost. Unless he continues his pandering to the right.

Another Dem Fight: Dean is "Rumsfeldian"?

2006-11-16T08:34:00.000-05:00

While House Dems stew over the mix-up concerning who will be Majority Leader, DNC chair Howard Dean is taking potshots from an unlikely source; James Carville. In an anti-Dean tirade yesterday, Carville blasted Dean as "Rumsfeldian in its competence" and vigorously called for his immediate ouster. Carville, in turn, was quickly trashed as either an operative for Rahm Emanuel or simply thirsty for publicity (he has been AWOL a lot since the demise of "Crossfire"). The Dems may not realize what image this infighting projects. They were elected on a platform of change and bipartisanship. They aren't changing a thing and can't even get along with other Dems. How will they peacefully co-exist in D.C. with GOPers when they're bashing themselves over an ideological split?

Hoyer vs. Murhta: Dem Decision

2006-11-16T08:17:00.000-05:00

The time for Democrats to pick their House leaders is drawing near. It's today, in fact. This is a big test for the continuation of Dem unity in the House. Tough tactics by Murtha supporters in the Nancy Pelosi camp have already created a rift in the party.

One conservative Democrat said that a Murtha-Pelosi ally approached him on the House floor and said pointedly: "I hope you like your committee assignment, because it's the only one you're going to get."

In a phone call initiated by Murtha that same day, the lawmaker told the longtime politician that he had already signed a letter of support for Hoyer. The congressman said he was stunned when Murtha told him, "Letters don't mean anything."

Hoyer's supporters complained about such tactics.

Liberals are clamoring for Murtha, even though he is conservative on everything other than Iraq and is embroiled in a burgeoning corruption scandal. But Murtha's a loyal fiend of Pelosi, so he gets her strong-armed backing. That sounds a bit too Republican, no?

It's a decision that will basically solidify the direction of the Dems for the next two years. Division is expected. But will voters see this as a bad start for the party that they viewed as (somewhat) above the fray of this GOP-style bickering?

Obama

2006-11-14T13:58:00.000-05:00

The hottest name in politics sat down with Diane Sawyer (of all people...) for a rather bland interview. Barack was shifty - as usual - about his presidential ambitions in 2008.

"It's only been three [days] or four days" since the midterm elections, he said. "I need a little bit more time than that."

The standard response. But Barack knows that he needs to make a decision soon. The official entrances of GOPers McCain and Giuliani into the race has knocked Obama back a bit. He's no longer the top name being discussed in '08. He can ensure initial buzz and success if he launches his campaign before Hillary or any other big name Dem.

Quick Hits

2006-11-14T12:55:00.000-05:00

The Hotline has a good piece on the rapid political change of John Murtha, the new darling of anti-war Democrats and the favored HML candidate of Nancy Pelosi. "Since calling for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in January, Murtha has effectively transformed himself from a backroom dealer who rarely sought the limelight to one of the most public, antiwar faces of the Democratic party. He’s muted his opposition to abortion rights and support of gun control while speaking more bluntly about getting out of Iraq."
No surprises as Senate Dems picked their leaders today. Harry Reid is majority leader and Chuck Schumer is still the campaign committee chair. The big fight will come Thursday, when the Dems pick leaders in the House. With Nancy Pelosi supporting Murtha and the rest of the House Dems backing the moderate Steny Hoyer, this will be their first big test after the election. Can they prevent this disagreement from turning into a contentious blowup? Stay tuned.

The Christian Science Monitor has a guest opinion piece from Speaker-to-be Pelosi. It's good, with lots of talk about actually getting things done in Congress, something that voters are expecting from Dems after voting them in last week. But will that talk translate into any real results? And what about Iraq? PB readers will find more later this week when Nancy Pelosi does a guest blog for Political Buzz. We give her five questions and she will give us her take on the top issues facing House Democrats. Should be fun!

Conservatives are bashing the choice of Mel Martinez as RNC chair over Mike Steele. It's rather ponderous as to why they're angry about this. Steele is a greenhorn Senate race loser. And Martinez is a helluva fundraiser, learning that difficult craft from none other than Karl Rove and Pres. Bush. And Martinez is right of right on most every issue. Well, except for immigration. Ohhhhhhh.... And could this be some backlash against hispanics after they deserted the GOP last week?

2008: Rudy's In

2006-11-13T19:56:00.000-05:00

That always puzzling GOP moderate Rudy Giuliani has finally settled the question of whether he will run for President in 2008: Rudy's in the mix. He joins john McCain in forming a "Presidential Exploratory Committee" looking at a probable '08 run.

It will be a lot harder for Rudy from here on out. He'll have to battle the right-wing conservative base of the GOP over his many liberal positions on social issues. He'll also be up against JMac, that gigantic GOP juggernaut. It will be tough for him to hold his own in the race. Will we see an early exit for Rudy?

Gingrich Interview

2006-11-13T11:02:00.000-05:00

PB recently discovered an overlooked interview of Newt Gingrich by some sort of site called "Christianity Today". It's short, but it does delve into Newt's views on religion and politics.

More '08 Analysis

2006-11-13T10:53:00.000-05:00

This time it's from Craig Crawford at CQ Politics. They have a comprehensive rundown from before the election of every single possible 2008 candidate from both parties. They profile 26 in all. Yikes...

It's in no particular ranking of who's most likely to get the nomination, but it does provide some nice info and analysis on every contender.

Most surprising name on the list? Tom Daschle. CC seems to think that a Daschle run is possible, especially after he almost went for it in '04.

2008: Feingold Is Gone

2006-11-12T20:18:00.000-05:00

Another Dem contender for 2008 has dropped out of the race, with Russ Feingold, that darling of the anti-war left, announcing today that he will not run for president in 2008.

"I began with the feeling I didn't really want to do this but was open to the possibility that getting around the country would make me want to do it. That never happened."

Some of Russ's supporters are now urging Feingold fans to quickly shift their allegiance to (gasp!) Al Gore.

Political Cortex:
Since Russ Feingold will not be running for President, I will now be endorsing Al Gore for President for 2008. I am asking anybody who supported Russ Feingold for President to support Al Gore for President so we can restore the rule of law to the White House and restore the system of checks and balances to our Constitutional system.

What will the left-wing folks at PC do when they finally realize that Gore is not running? Make nice with Hillary? Never!

Feingold joins Mark Warner on the list of Democrats making early decisions not to pursue presidential ambitions. This bevy of Dem announcements is no doubt due to the Dem pandemonium of '04, when the number of candidates at the debates looked less like a game show and more like an overloaded rock tribute band. Nobody wants a repeat of that. Besides, this time it's the Dems that are the party with a solidly defined front-runner in the race. No one wants to go up against Hillary and Barack. They know that they have no shot with those two superstars in the mix.

Updated 2008 Rankings

2006-11-11T19:16:00.000-05:00

The 2008 race has gotten much more intriguing following the Dem surprise in the midterms. Lots of changes since the last time PB weighed in on the race.

We urge PB readers to give us any and all comments on the rankings. You can even formulate your own list of '08 contenders.

Here's how we think everything stands right now:

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton ↑
Hillary, like most Dems, gets an up arrow after the uber-successful midterms. However, HC is in a precarious position after Obama, Pelosi and Co. really stole the spotlight from her on Election Day. The nationwide outburst against the war in Iraq has left Hillary playing catch-up with war opponents. The big Dem win may also leave the party brass feeling like they can take a chance with Obama in ‘08. But any talk of HC as being “unelectable” has to be put aside. Any Democrat is electable. She’s still on top.

Barack Obama ↑
Barack is a big winner after the midterms. His 2008 stock has skyrocketed. He was political gold on the campaign trail, he was successful on the campaign trail, and the Dem victory means that he will have a much easier time of it trying to gain support as a left-leaning centrist. His constant talk of bipartisanship should endear him to all of the moderate voters from this year if the current mood holds. Can he get past his race? That’s the big question-mark on him, especially after the drubbing Harold Ford received in Tennessee. But still, nobody is hotter than Barack right now.

John Edwards ↔
The ex-Senator has disappeared. While Hillary and Obama were everywhere on the campaign trail before the midterms, getting their names and faces out in public, Edwards went AWOL. His wife made more headlines than JE. What to make of that? He senses that any chance at the nomination is hurtling past him as fast as Barack Obama’s private jet zooming across the country and is contemplating accepting the inevitable. Obama’s sudden entrance as the challenger to Hillary has made Edwards an also ran. He needs some quick publicity before he slides down with Evan Bayh and the rest of the Dem underlings in ‘08. He needed to capitalize on the Dem victory.

Evan Bayh/Bill Richardson/Tom Vilsack ↔
The Dem win didn’t hurt them or help them. These gentlemen are all playing for a Veep slot. They’ll try to make a splash in the debates, probably spouting off utopian dreams and smoothly bashing Hillary. Vilsack is the first Democrat that is officially running in 2008, making his announcement this week. Just a quick publicity grab. Richardson and Bayh are the most intriguing Veep candidates, probably making a good team with either Obama or Hillary. Well, nix the Obama-Richardson ticket. No way the Dems will want to take a chance with two minorities on the same presidential ticket. Vilsack is a possible Veep for Hillary.

John Kerry ↓
What else is there to say about Kerry? He didn’t just shoot himself in the foot with his Iraq/US troops comment, he blew his brains out. His ‘08 chances were slim to none before that, but now he is severely damaged goods; no sane Dem will actively support him, and Dem leaders may even ask him to bow out of the race before his campaign even begins. This tragically vain soul will no doubt press on, but will only make an even bigger fool out of himself down the line.

Republicans:

John McCain ↑
McCain has come out of the midterms looking more like the GOP front-runner than ever before. Voters fascination with moderates has made JMac the best hope for Republicans in ‘08 right now. He's capitalizing on that by already launching his 2008 bid. He was as visible as Barack and Hillary on the campaign trail, jetting across the country to stump for GOPers. There’s always a chance for conservatives to once again become the driving force behind Republicans and trash McCain in favor of a Gingrich or Romney, but the party brass may not let that happen when they realize that he is their best candidate. He’s swung wildly this year, from the only candidate to the forgotten candidate and now back on top. No telling what will happen once he gets smeared by the right-wing.

Mitt Romney ↔
Not much good news for Mitt coming out of the election. GOP governors, of which he is the leader, lost badly on 11/7. And his burgeoning conservative views lost nationwide this week. Voters went looking for moderates, not ideologues. But Mitt was as active as McCain on the stump pre-election, getting his name out and raking in a lot of cash for his favored candidates. His fundraising ability will be his biggest plus in ’08. There’s still the question of his Mormon faith that’s out there.

Rudy Giuliani ↓
Where’s Rudy? Like WaPO, PB can’t seem to figure out what happened to the hero of 9/11. His was the hottest viable name in the GOP in late summer, working the campaign trail and thrashing McCain in all of the polls. And then he vanished. He needs to get out there amongst the GOP faithful and better explain his quasi-liberal views if he wants any shot. He kept saying that he would announce his 2008 plans after the election, so maybe more info will come soon.

Newt Gingrich ↑
While moderate Republicans, Democrats and independents went for moderate views and bipartisanship in the midterms, the GOP base wants to shift even more to the right. That plays right into Newt’s hands. He went super-tough on national security and terrorism on his weekly appearances on FOX pre-election, and now is offering his advice (who isn’t?) on what went wrong for Republicans. His ideas are already getting praise from many right-wing Republican media types. Can Newt emerge as the perfect antidote for a wayward and lethargic GOP? A sleeper pick.

Duncan Hunter ↔
Hunter is the first Republican to officially announce that he’s running. The GOP Vilsack; first to run but nothing more. However, he is Veep material. But that’s about all.

Condi Rice - No, she’s not running.

A New GOP "Vision"

2006-11-10T17:26:00.000-05:00

With the GOP in turmoil after their savage thumping in the midterms, a call for different strategies is coming from many in the Republican ranks. Congressman Mike Pence, already running for House Minority Leader, has issued a sort of decree calling for a "new vision" wihin the GOP. It's a lengthy diatribe that is basically foemulated to help Pence gain the HML slot. The Hotline has the entire document.

2008 Rankings From WaPo

2006-11-10T17:17:00.000-05:00

The Washington Post has a fresh ranking of 2008 White house contenders. Yes, it's never too early to start thinking about the next election.

Here are the basics of WaPo's rankings. For analysis and more, head to the complete list on The Fix:

Democrats:

1. Hillary Rodham Clinton
2. Barack Obama
3. John Edwards
4. Evan Bayh
5. Bill Richardson

Republicans:

1. John McCain
2. Mitt Romney
3. Rudy Giuliani
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Newt Gingrich

Rudy's star has fallen precipitously over the last few months, almost as quickly as it rose this summer. He may reemerge as the best GOP candidate after this election, however, with Republican conservatism striking out with voters at the polls.

Look for a brand new 2008 rundown from Political Buzz very soon.

Election 2006: Quick Hits

2006-11-09T19:40:00.000-05:00

George Allen's Senate race concession speech was awfully feisty. He barely mentioned that overused keyword these days - bipartisanship - and went on about God, the Bible, and "new chances" - all while presenting a grim and angry look upon his face. By pandering to his still-strong conservative base there is no doubt that he will re-enter politics very soon.

Anyone think of filibusters in all of the post-election hoopla? The GOP will need them as the minority party in the Senate. They must be extremely relieved that their "nuclear option" against them didn't materialize in '05. Most pundits - and certainly not the Republicans - never even thought of the chance that the GOP would be hurting themselves down the line if they pulled a nuke. It was as if they were invincible back then. Maybe that attitude is why they lost this time around.

The big GOP winner coming out of 2006? That would be John McCain. The moderate maverick is set to pounce on the bipartisan feeling spreading through DC and the rest of the country into a front-runner spot for the GOP, wresting that title back from Rudy Giuliani. Will JMac's popularity last?

The Meeting

2006-11-09T13:36:00.000-05:00

Oh to be the proverbial 'fly on the wall' at the lunch get-together this afternoon between Pres. Bush and top Dem leaders. PB would have loved to there not so much for what was said, but more for the surely awkward expression on the faces of that jovial group. It may be 70* in DC today, but there had to be icicles in the White House. No chance of "getting along" between these stubborn adversaries.

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